Estimation of Human Impact in the Presence of Natural Fluctuations
Peter Guttorp, Paul D. Sampson
| NRCSE researchers are
collaborating with European colleagues from seven countries on an EU-sponsored
research project called "IMPACT: Estimation of Human Impact in the
Presence of Natural Fluctuations." The general objective of the
project is to develop, test and disseminate generic decision support
tools that can: (i) match technological advances in environmental
monitoring, (ii) facilitate estimation of environmental impact in the
presence of natural fluctuations in the state of the environment, and
(iii) bridge the gap between statistical data analysis and mechanistic
modeling. More specifically, the project aims at creating tools
involving the following procedures: (i) Time series decomposition
methods in which a given series of environmental data is divided into
two components respective representing meteorologically induced
fluctuations and meteorologically normalized estimates of human impact;
(ii) Significance tests that permit retrospective impact assessment in
the presence of covariates representing natural fluctuations; (iii)
Model reduction procedures that facilitate merging of statistical and
mechanistic approaches. The NRCSE group is responsible for development
and application of methods of meteorological adjustment of tropospheric
ozone based on the methodological review in NRCSE TRS number 26. The
group is currently collaborating with colleagues from the Ecole des
Mines in France on analysis of Paris region air quality data. We will
also advise and collaborate with Finnish Meteorological Institute
colleagues on analyses of background ozone levels in Finland. For
further information on the project, see the IMPACT web site at http://www.mai.liu.se/impact/index.html. |
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