Abstracts of Panel Session

Panel Session: Friday June 21 9:15-10:45 AM

Organizer: S.R. Esterby

Chair: I.B. MacNeill

The Perspective of Quantitative Science in the Debate about Environmental Degradation

Abstract:  It may seem logical to assume that, if scientists obtain defensible estimates of the current status of environmental quality and make defensible predictions about the future degradation of environmental quality, decision makers will use this information in the formulation of environmental policy that will protect the environment from further degradation. Of course this is over simplistic, as evident, for example from the current situation regarding reduction of emissions under the Kyoto protocol. This being so, what position should environmental scientists take in these complex and political questions of environmental protection? This question raises key issues: defensibility, inclusion and visibility of environmetricians, collaborative and integrative research, successes and failures, and differences between environmental compartments and levels of policy making.

 The provision of defensible estimates and predictions is extremely important so that the case for environmental protection is not hurt by apparent contradictions. This involves the exercise of great diligence in view of the prevalent situation of incomplete information and makes it natural to think that environmetricians should take the leadership in the discussion about the level of uncertainty in the scientific results reported. In turn, the question arises as to how environmetricians become part of the information gathering team and ensure that they are heard in the discussions. The diligence referred to above may imply that investigations are conducted in a collaborative manner, bringing together scientists and methodologies from the pertinent disciplines. Each environmental protection issue, ie. the environmental compartment and the level at which policy is being made, will bring some different considerations and possibly different chances of successfully impacting decisions.

The above comments are intended to provide some starting points for the discussion. The varied and wide experience of the panellists, together with the anticipated floor discussion, should bring us more insight into how we can have greater impact upon environmental decision-making.