Hana Ševčíková

Senior Research Scientist

Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology
University of Washington

Office: Padelford C14F

hanas at uw.edu

Last update 10/30/2025

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Research & Software

Current Research:  Probabilistic population projection, jointly with Adrian Raftery and the United Nations Population Division.
Data Scientist at the Puget Sound Regional Council, working on regional land use forecasting.
Previous Projects:  In the area of urban planning -- co-developer of UrbanSim, project led by Paul Waddell and Alan Borning.
Project on fractal analysis of random fields (NSF 0134264 ), jointly with Tilmann Gneiting and Don Percival.
Jointly with Tony Rossini, project on statistical parallel computing.
R packages:  Population projections: bayesTFR, bayesLife, bayesLifeHIV, bayesPop, bayesMig, wpp2024, wpp2022, wppExplorer (UI available also online), wpp2019, wpp2017, wpp2015, wpp2012, wpp2010 (more info about the project)
Mortality projections: MortCast
Parallel computing: snowFT, rlecuyer (read this for more info), contributed to snow
Other: vote, mlogitBMA, fractaldim
Maintaining: BMA, dma, demogR, covRobust
All packages can be downloaded from CRAN or GitHub.
GitHub: hanase, PPgp

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Education & Positions

Present

Senior Research Scientist, University of Washington, Seattle
Data Scientist at the Puget Sound Regional Council, Seattle

Past

Postdoc in the Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle
Ph.D. in statistics, Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Hamburg (Germany),
M.S. in computer science, Universität Hamburg (Germany)
lived in Frankfurt am Main (Germany)
Diplom in computer science, VSB - Technicka Univerzita Ostrava (Czech Republic)
lived in Brno (Czech Republic)
graduated from Gymnazium Mikulov (Czech Republic)
born in Cheb (Czech Republic)

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Publications

  • Welch, N.G., Ševčíková, H., and Raftery, A.E. (2025). Bringing Age Back In: Accounting for Population Age Distribution in Forecasting Migration. Demography (in press). Pre-print.
  • Yu, C., Ševčíková, H., Raftery, A.E., and Curran, S.R. (2023) Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections. Demography, Vol. 60(3), 915-937.
  • Liu, P.R., Ševčíková , H., and Raftery, A.E. (2023) Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 39(1), 73-97.
  • Raftery, A.E. and Ševčíková, H. (2023). Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 39(1):73-97.
  • Rennert, K., Errickson, F., Prest, B.C., Rennels, L., Newell, R.G., Pizer, W.A., Kingdon, C., Wingenroth, J., Cooke, R., Parthum, B., Smith, D., Cromar, K., Diaz, D., Moore, F.C., Müller, U.K., Plevin, R.J., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková, H., Sheets, H., Stock, J.H., Tan, T., Watson, M., Wong, T.E., and Anthoff, D. (2022). Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2. Nature, 610, 687–692.
  • Rennert, K., Prest, B.C., Pizer, W.A., Newell, R.G., Anthoff, D., Kingdon, C., Rennels, L., Cooke, R., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková, H., and Errickson F. (2021). The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall. 223-275.
  • Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and Silverman, B.W. (2021). The vote Package: Single Transferable Vote and Other Electoral Systems in R. R Journal, 13: 673-696.
  • Ševčíková, H. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy. Journal of Official Statistics, Vol. 37, no. 3, 591-610.
  • Ševčíková, H. and Nichols, B. (2021). Land use uncertainty in transportation forecast. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 14(1), 805-820.
  • Ševčíková, H., Raftery, A.E. and Gerland, P. (2018). Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates. Demographic Research, Vol. 38(60):1843-1884.
  • Ševčíková, H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections. Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 75(5).
  • Azose, J.J., Ševčíková, H., Raftery, A.E. (2016): Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:6460-6465.
  • Ševčíková, H., Li, N., Kantorová, V., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. (2016): Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections. In: Dynamic Demographic Analysis, ed. Schoen R. (Springer), pp. 285-310. Earlier version
  • Ševčíková, H., Simonson, M., Jensen, M. (2015). Assessing and Integrating Uncertainty into Land Use Forecasting. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 8(3).
  • Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., Alkema, L., Fosdick, B.K., Chunn, J.L., Lalic, N., Bay, G., Buettner, T., Heilig, G.K. and Wilmoth, J. (2014). World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century. Science 346:234-237.
  • Ševčíková, H., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P. (2014). Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections: Do It Yourself. Annual meeting of Population Association of America, 2014, Boston, MA.
  • Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P., Ševčíková, H. (2013). Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. Demography, 50, 777-801.
  • Raftery, A.E., Li. N., Ševčíková , H., Gerland, P. and Heilig, G.K. (2012). Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109:13915-13921.
  • Gneiting, T., Ševčíková, H. and Percival, D. B. (2012). Estimators of fractal dimension: Assessing the smoothness of time series and spatial data. Statistical Science, 27(2), 247-277.
  • Ševčíková, H., Raftery, A.E., Waddell, P. (2011). Uncertain benefits: Application of Bayesian melding to the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle. Transportation Research Part A, 45, 540-553.
  • Sevcikova, H., Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. (2011). bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate. Journal of Statistical Software, 43(1), 1-29.
  • Borning, A., Sevcikova, H., Waddell, P.: A Domain-Specific Language for Urban Simulation Variables, Proceedings of the 9th Annual International Conference on Digital Government Research, Montreal, Canada (2008).
  • Hana Sevcikova, Adrian Raftery, Paul Waddell. Assessing Uncertainty in Urban Simulations Using Bayesian Melding. Transportation Research B, 41 (2007), 652-669.
  • Gneiting, T., Sevcikova, H., Percival, D. B., Schlather, M. and Jiang, Y. Fast and exact simulation of large Gaussian lattice systems in R²: Exploring the limits. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 15 (2006), 483-501.
  • Sevcikova, H., Borning, A., Socha, D., Bleek, W.-G.: Automated Testing of Stochastic Systems: A Statistically Grounded Approach. Proceedings of the 2006 International Symposium on Software Testing and Analysis}, Portland, Maine, USA, 215-224 (2006).
  • Paul Waddell, Hana Sevcikova, David Socha, Eric Miller, Kai Nagel, Opus: An Open Platform for Urban Simulation.  Presented at the Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management Conference, June, 2005, London, U.K.
  • H. Sevcikova: Statistical Simulations on Parallel Computers. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 13 (2004), 886-906. (pdf).
  • W. Seidel, K. Sever, H. Sevcikova: Efficient Calculation of the NPMLE of a Mixing Distribution for Mixtures of Exponentials. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 50 (2005), 1248-1271.
  • W. Seidel, H. Sevcikova: Types of Likelihood Maxima in Mixture Models and their implication on the Performance of Tests. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. 56 (2004), 631-654.
  • W.Seidel, H.Sevcikova: An Analysis of Tests Aganst Nonparametric Alternatives in Exponential Mixture Models. Discussion Papers in Statistics und Quantitative Economics 109 (2003), Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg. (ps) (pdf)
  • W. Seidel, H. Sevcikova: A Detailed Investigation of Likelihood Maxima in Two-Component Exponential Mixture Models and their Implication on LR Tests. Discussion Papers in Statistics und Quantitative Economics 106 (2003), Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg. (ps) (pdf)
  • W. Seidel, H. Sevcikova, Sattar Muneera Yaseen Ali: On Resampling Approaches for Identifying Statistically Meaningful Maxima of Likelihood Functions. Discussion Papers in Statistics und Quantitative Economics 105 (2003), Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg. (ps) (pdf)
  • W. Seidel, H. Sevcikova: Tools for Analyzing and Maximizing Likelihood Functions in Mixture Models. Discussion Papers in Statistics und Quantitative Economics 104 (2002), Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg. (ps) (pdf)
  • W. Seidel, H. Sevcikova: On EM Versions with Gradient Function Update for Finite Mixtures. Discussion Papers in Statistics und Quantitative Economics 103 (2002), Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg .
  • W. Seidel, H. Sevcikova, M. Alker: On the Power of Different Versions of the Likelihood Ratio Test for Homogeneity in an Exponential Mixture Model. Discussion Papers in Statistics and Quantitative Economics 92 (2000), Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg. (ps) (pdf)
  • W. Krumbholz, R. Lassahn, H. Sevcikova: Double sampling plans for attributes that minimize the ASN maximum. Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv 83 (1999), 211-223.
  • W. Krumbholz, R. Lassahn, H. Sevcikova: Zweifache attributive ASN-Flächen-Prüfpläne. Mathematische Methoden der Wirtschaftswissenschaften (1999) (Eds. Gaul, W., Schader, M.). Heidelberg: Physica.
  • W. Krumbholz, R. Lassahn, H. Sevcikova: Zweifache ASN-Attributprüfpläne mit Abbruch. Discussion Papers in Statistics and Quantitative Economics 88 (1999), Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg.
  • H. de Meer, H. Sevcikova: PENELOPE: dependability evaluation and the optimization of performability. In R. Marie, R. Plateau, and G. Rubino, editors, Proc. 9th Int. Conf. on Modeling Techniques and Tools for Computer Performance Evaluation, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 1245 (1997), pages 19-31. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.


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