Probabilistic risk modeling at the wildland-urban interface:  the 2003 Cedar Fire 

David R. Brillinger
Statistics Department
University of California
Berkeley

ABSTRACT 
 
 
The October 2003 Cedar Fire in San Diego County was a tragedy involving 14 deaths,
 the burning of some 280,000 acres, the destruction of 2232 homes, and costs of 
suppression near $30 million, but the data associated with it provide an opportunity 
to carry out probabilistic risk modeling of a wildland-urban interface (WIF). WIFs exist 
where humans and their development interface with wildland fuel. As home building 
expands from urban areas to nearby rural ones the interface becomes a greater 
and greater fire problem.
 
Since wildfires are an exceedingly complex phenomenon with uncertainty and 
unpredictability abounding a statistical approach to gaining insight appears 
useful. In this work spatial stochastic models are developed for relating risk
probabilities and damage measure to various explanatory variables.

There will be discussion of the difficulties that arose in seeking pertinent 
data and of carrying out EDA when the data are GIS layers.

The work is collaborative with Benjamin Scott Autrey and Matias Cattaneo