TIES North
American Regional
Meeting
University of
Washington,
Seattle
June 19 - June 21,
2007
TUESDAY JUNE 19
1:00-1:15 Welcome
(HUB 200)
David Brillinger,
TIES
President
Peter
Guttorp, Organizing Committee Chair
1:15-3:15 Inference
for mechanistic models
(HUB 200)
Chair: Joel
Reynolds, US Fish
and Wildlife Service, Anchorage
Tilmann
Gneiting, University of Washington
Probabilistic
weather forecasting
Mark
Berliner, Ohio State University
Physical
statistical environmental modeling
Derek
Bingham, Simon Fraser University
Experiment
design for models with field and computer trials
3:15-3:45 Coffee
break
3:45-4:45 Keynote
lecture I
(HUB 200)
Chair: Jim Zidek,
University of
British Columbia
Paul
Switzer, Stanford University
Regional
time trends in climate model simulations
5:30-7:30 Posters
& Opening mixer
(Walker-Ames Room)
Celeste
Yang, Kansas State University
A
study of the calibration-inverse prediction problem for a mixed model
Laurie
Ainsworth, Simon Fraser University
Zero-inflated
spatial models
Soren
E. Larsen, Aarhus University
Regional
trends in precipitation and stream runoff in Denmark
Erika
Kramer, University of Waterloo
Local
hierarchical extension of Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP)
method for
probabilistic weather forecasting of surface temperature
Laura
Knudsen, University of Washington
An
international comparison of air quality standards
WEDNESDAY JUNE 20
8:00-10:00 Monitoring
the environment and biota on
landscape
to continental scales I
(HUB 200)
Chair:
Joel Reynolds, US Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage
Robin
O'Malley, The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics
and the Environment
The
state of the nation's ecosystems: Environmental signals at the macro scale
Jason
Legg, Iowa State University
Imputation procedure to
extrapolate data for unobserved panels in longitudinal
surveys
Gretchen
Moisen, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station
Improving
efficiency in broad-scale vegetation inventories:
Examples from
the Nevada photo-based
inventory pilot
8:00-10:00 Contributed
I: Inference for mechanistic
and
stochastic models
(HUB 209)
Chair: Tilmann
Gneiting,
University of Washington
McLean
Sloughter, University of Washington
Probabilistic
quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian
model averaging
Johan
Lindstro¶m, University of Lund
Interpolating
precipitation data over the African Sahel using a non-stationary
GMRF
Larissa
Stanberry, University of Washington
Assessing
probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities
Eva
Furrer, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Improved
treatment of covariates and extremes in climate scenario
generation
Veronica
Berrocal, University of Washington
Probabilistic
weather forecasting for winter road maintenance
10:00-10:15 Coffee
break
10:15-12:15 Monitoring
the environment and biota on
landscape
to continental scales II
(HUB 200)
Chair: Loveday Conquest, University of
Washington
Don
Stevens, Oregon State University
Spatially
balanced survey designs for large scale monitoring programs
Mevin
Hooten, Utah State University
Optimal
spatio-temporal sampling designs for monitoring dynamic systems
Jay
Breidt, Colorado State University
Uncertainty
analysis for a US inventory of soil organic carbon stock
changes
10:15-12:15 Contributed
II: Spatial Methods
(HUB 209)
Chair: Paul
Sampson, University
of Washington
Kathryn
Irvine, Oregon State University
Connections
between graphical models and models for multivariate spatial
data
Finn
Lindgren, University of Lund
Approximation
of generalised Mate©rn covariances using Markov random
fields
Petrutza
Caragea, Iowa State University
A
practical approach to analyzing large scale nonstationary spatial data
Adam
Szpiro, University of Washington
Challenges
in predicting intra-urban variation in air pollution levels using data from a complex
spatio-temporal
monitoring design
Hakmook
Kang, Brown University
Predicting
water quality in the Maryland coastal bays using spatio-temporal
models
12:15-1:30
Lunch
1:30-3:30 Paleoclimatic
Temperature Reconstruction
(HUB
200)
Chair:
Peter Guttorp, University of Washington
Edward
Cook, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Tree
rings as natural recorders of climatic variability and
change: their properties,
strengths, and limitations
David
Schneider, University of Colorado
Water
isotopes and ice cores as indicators of climate change:
Integrating data, modeling and theory
Bo
Li, National Center for Atmospheric Research
The
uncertain hockey stick: a statistical perspective on the
reconstruction of past
temperatures
1:30-3:30 Contributed
III: Methods in Ecology
(HUB
209)
Chair: Ashley
Steel, NOAA
Fisheries Seattle
Joshua
J. Lawler, Oregon State University
Biodiversity
in a changing climate: projected climate-induced shifts
in species distributions
Heather
Coiner, University of Toronto
Minimum
winter temperatures can predict the northern range limit
of kudzu (Pueraria lobata) in
North America
Alice
Shelly, TerraStat
Sample
design and power analysis for detecting long term
changes in
landbird populations in the North
Cascades Coastal Network
Zuzana
Hrdlickova, University of British Columbia Okanagan
One-way
ANOVA type model with negative binomial distribution
Cynthia
Cooper, Environmental Protection Agency Columbus
Adapting Melly's
quantile-regression
Oaxaca/Blinder
Megan
Daily Higgs, Colorado State University
Spatial
models for ordered categorical data 3:30-3:45 Coffee
break 3:45-5:45 Assessing
Trends in Extreme Climate Events
Chair: Peter
Guttorp,
University of Washington
Elizabeth
Shamseldin, University of North Carolina
Extreme
precipitation: an application modeling n-year return levels
Georg
Lindgren, University of Lund
On
marine weather conditions
Slava
Kharin, Environment Canada, Victoria
Changes
in temperature and precipitation annual extremes in 3:45-5:45 Climate
impacts on ocean and freshwater
(HUB
209)
Chair: Lisa
Crozier, NOAA
Seattle
Bill
Peterson, NOAA Newport
The
Northern California Current Ecosystem: climate variability and
Peter
Lawson, NOAA Newport
Climate
impacts on Oregon coastal coho salmon, Oncorhynchus
Kerym
Aydin, NOAA Seattle
Predicting
our predictions: Reporting uncertainty in forecasting
Lisa
Crozier, NOAA Seattle
Effects
of climate change on Snake River Chinook Salmon 6:00-9:00 Conference
dinner
(Haggett North
Main Dining
Room)
THURSDAY JUNE 21 8:00-10:00
Agroclimate
risk assessment
(HUB
200)
Chair: Jim Zidek,
University of
British Columbia
Nathaniel
Newlands, Agriculture
Canada
Canadian
agriculture, climate change and extreme weather:
Jim
Ramsay, McGill University
Estimating
the variation in the quantile function for precipitation
Nhu
Le, BC Cancer Agency, Vancouver
Modelling
precipitations fields for agroclimate risk management 8:00-10:00 Contributed
IV: Forest fires, remote
(HUB 209)
Chair: Haiganoush
Preisler, US
Forest Service Albany
Sorina Eftim,
Johns Hopkins
University
Canada
forest fires, transboundary air pollution and
Don
McKenzie, US Forest Service, Seattle
Geospatial
modeling of historical low-severity fire regimes
Trevor
Moffiet, University of Newcastle
Relationship
modelling on bounded spaces with example
Johannes
Breidenbach, Forest
Research Institute Baden-Wuerttemberg Comparing
methods to
estimate above ground biomass by means
Owen
Hamel, NOAA Seattle
A
mathematical model of the bomb radiocarbon chronometer for 10:00-10:30 Coffee
break 10:30-12:30 The role
of statistics in environmental policy
Chair:
Ashley Steel, NOAA Fisheries Seattle
Paul
Mcelhany, NOAA Fisheries Seattle
Sensitivity
analysis of a model used in the management of ESA-
Tanja
Srebotnjak, Yale University
Among
the blind the one-eyed is king: a decision-tree model for
Marianne
Turley, Bureau of Land Management, Oregon
Statistics
impact federal environmental policy!! Where? How? Why?
10:30-12:30 Measuring
biodiversity and species interactions
Chair:
Laurie Ainsworth, Simon Fraser University
Andy
Royle, US Geological Survey
Hierarchical
models for inference in (Meta)community systems
Emily
Silverman, US Fish and Wildlife Service Maryland
Statistical
approaches to measuring species' associations in mixed-
Rampal
Etienne, University of Groningen
The
utility of the useless: lessons from ecological nihilism 12:30-2:00
Lunch 2:00-3:00 Keynote
Lecture II
(HUB
200)
Chair: Peter
Guttorp,
University of Washington
David
Brillinger, University of California Berkeley
Probabilistic
risk modeling at the wildland-urban interface: the 2003
Cedar Fire 3:00-3:30 Coffee
break 3:30-5:30 Forests,
fires and stochastic modeling
(HUB 200)
Chair:
Charmaine Dean, Simon Fraser University
Mike
Flannigan, Canadian Forest Service, Sault Ste. Marie
Climate
change and forest fires in Canada
Haiganoush
Preisler, US Forest Service, Albany
Effects
of climate on wildland fires
Steve Taylor, Canadian Forest Service, Victoria
Use
of
stochastic simulation in downscaling climate change projections
for modeling daily forest insect and host development:
examples from B.C 3:30-5:30 Contributed
V: Climate
(HUB
209)
Chair: Veronica
Berrocal,
University of Washington
Mark Greenwood,
Montana State
University
Functional
linear models for daily or yearly streamflow measures
Michael
Keim, University of Washington
Characteristic
scale analysis of arctic sea ice types using wavelets
Peter
Craigmile, Ohio State University
Spatial
variation in the influence of the North Atlantic oscillation on
Donald
Percival, University of Washington
Arctic
sea-ice thickness: Evidence of decline from a multiple
Donald
Noakes, Thompson Rivers University
Decadal
scale response of North Pacific ocean marine fisheries to
Lelys
Guenni, Simon Bolivar University
Synthesizing
climate change projections for Venezuela using
decomposition
for continuous factors, to estimate stream stressor
impacts on benthic
tail-populations in confounded
conditions
(HUB
200)
at
the station level in extremes of North American rainfall
the
IPCC AR4
multi-model ensemble
ecosystems
indices of ocean
conditions for
fishery management
kisutch:
integrating freshwater
and marine ecosystems at daily to
centennial
time scales
tools
under development
for ecosystem-based fisheries management
Developing a
credible database of gridded long-term
nationwide
daily agroclimatic
data
over
space
and time
sensing,
and stochastic modeling
hospitalizations
among the elderly in the Northeastern and Mid-
Atlantic
regions of the USA in July 2002
application
to the estimation of forest foliage cover by remote sensing
of
airborne lidar data
use in fish
age validation
(HUB 200)
listed salmonids:
making
sense of 10,000 parameters
dealing
with incomplete
information in environmental policy
(HUB 209)
species bird flocks
precipitation
across Greenland
regression analysis
incorporating long-range dependence
regime shifts
a probabilistic
Bayesian approach