TIES North American Regional Meeting

University of Washington, Seattle

June 19 - June 21, 2007

 

 

TUESDAY JUNE 19

 

 

1:00-1:15           Welcome

                           (HUB 200)

         David Brillinger, TIES President

         Peter Guttorp, Organizing Committee Chair

 

 

1:15-3:15           Inference for mechanistic models

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Joel Reynolds, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage

 

         Tilmann Gneiting, University  of Washington

         Probabilistic weather forecasting

 

         Mark Berliner, Ohio State University

         Physical statistical environmental modeling

 

         Derek Bingham, Simon Fraser University

         Experiment design for models with field and computer trials

 

 

3:15-3:45           Coffee break

 

 

3:45-4:45           Keynote lecture I

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Jim Zidek, University of British Columbia

 

         Paul Switzer, Stanford University

         Regional time trends in climate model simulations

        

 

5:30-7:30           Posters & Opening mixer

                           (Walker-Ames Room)

        

         Celeste Yang, Kansas State University

         A study of the calibration-inverse prediction problem for a mixed model

 

         Laurie Ainsworth, Simon Fraser University

         Zero-inflated spatial models

 

         Soren E. Larsen, Aarhus University

         Regional trends in precipitation and stream runoff in Denmark

 

         Erika Kramer, University of Waterloo

         Local hierarchical extension of Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP)
                method for probabilistic weather forecasting of surface  temperature

 

         Laura Knudsen, University of Washington

         An international comparison of air quality standards

 

 

WEDNESDAY JUNE 20

 

 

8:00-10:00          Monitoring the environment and biota on
                           landscape to continental scales I

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Joel Reynolds, US Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage

                                    

         Robin O'Malley, The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment

         The state of the nation's ecosystems: Environmental signals at the macro scale

 

         Jason Legg, Iowa State University

         Imputation procedure to extrapolate data for unobserved panels in longitudinal surveys

 

         Gretchen Moisen, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station

         Improving efficiency in broad-scale vegetation inventories:
        Examples from the Nevada photo-based inventory pilot

                 

8:00-10:00         Contributed I: Inference for mechanistic                                                     
                          
and stochastic models

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington

 

         McLean Sloughter, University of Washington

         Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging

 

         Johan Lindstro¶m, University of Lund

         Interpolating precipitation data over the African Sahel using a non-stationary GMRF

 

         Larissa Stanberry, University of Washington

         Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities

 

         Eva Furrer, National Center for Atmospheric Research

         Improved treatment of covariates and extremes in climate scenario generation       

 

         Veronica Berrocal, University of Washington

         Probabilistic weather forecasting for winter road maintenance

 

 

 

10:00-10:15       Coffee break

 

 

10:15-12:15       Monitoring the environment and biota on
                           landscape to continental scales II

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair:  Loveday Conquest, University of Washington

 

         Don Stevens, Oregon State University

         Spatially balanced survey designs for large scale monitoring programs

 

         Mevin Hooten, Utah State University

         Optimal spatio-temporal sampling designs for monitoring dynamic systems

 

         Jay Breidt, Colorado State University

         Uncertainty analysis for a US inventory of soil organic carbon stock changes

 

 

10:15-12:15       Contributed II: Spatial Methods

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Paul Sampson, University of Washington

 

         Kathryn Irvine, Oregon State University

         Connections between graphical models and models for multivariate spatial data

 

         Finn Lindgren, University of Lund

         Approximation of generalised Mate©rn covariances using Markov random fields

 

         Petrutza Caragea, Iowa State University

         A practical approach to analyzing large scale nonstationary spatial data

 

         Adam Szpiro, University of Washington

         Challenges in predicting intra-urban variation in air pollution levels using data from a complex
             spatio-temporal monitoring design

  

         Hakmook Kang, Brown University

         Predicting water quality in the Maryland coastal bays using spatio-temporal models

 

 

 

12:15-1:30                  Lunch

 

 

1:30-3:30           Paleoclimatic Temperature Reconstruction

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Peter Guttorp, University of Washington

 

         Edward Cook, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

         Tree rings as natural recorders of climatic variability and       

         change: their properties, strengths, and limitations

 

         David Schneider, University of Colorado

         Water isotopes and ice cores as indicators of climate change: Integrating data, modeling and theory

        

         Bo Li, National Center for Atmospheric Research

         The uncertain hockey stick: a statistical perspective on the reconstruction of past temperatures

                                              

 

1:30-3:30           Contributed III: Methods in Ecology

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Ashley Steel, NOAA Fisheries Seattle

 

         Joshua J. Lawler, Oregon State University

         Biodiversity in a changing climate: projected climate-induced shifts in species distributions

 

         Heather Coiner, University of Toronto

         Minimum winter temperatures can predict the northern range limit of kudzu (Pueraria lobata) in
            North America

 

         Alice Shelly, TerraStat

         Sample design and power analysis for detecting long term
       changes in landbird populations in the North Cascades Coastal Network

 

         Zuzana Hrdlickova, University of British Columbia Okanagan

         One-way ANOVA type model with negative binomial distribution

 

         Cynthia Cooper, Environmental Protection Agency Columbus   

        Adapting Melly's quantile-regression Oaxaca/Blinder
        decomposition for continuous factors, to estimate stream stressor
       
impacts on benthic tail-populations in confounded conditions

 

         Megan Daily Higgs, Colorado State University

         Spatial models for ordered categorical data

 

 

3:30-3:45           Coffee break

 

 

3:45-5:45           Assessing Trends in Extreme Climate Events
                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Peter Guttorp, University of Washington

 

         Elizabeth Shamseldin, University of North Carolina

         Extreme precipitation: an application modeling n-year return levels
         at the station level in extremes of North American rainfall

 

         Georg Lindgren, University of Lund

         On marine weather conditions

 

         Slava Kharin, Environment Canada, Victoria

         Changes in temperature and precipitation annual extremes in
         the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble

 

 

 

3:45-5:45           Climate impacts on ocean and freshwater
                           ecosystems

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Lisa Crozier, NOAA Seattle

 

         Bill Peterson, NOAA Newport

         The Northern California Current Ecosystem: climate variability and
        indices of ocean conditions for fishery management

 

         Peter Lawson, NOAA Newport

         Climate impacts on Oregon coastal coho salmon, Oncorhynchus
        kisutch: integrating freshwater and marine ecosystems at daily to
        centennial time scales

 

         Kerym Aydin, NOAA Seattle

         Predicting our predictions: Reporting uncertainty in forecasting
         tools under development for ecosystem-based fisheries management

 

         Lisa Crozier, NOAA Seattle

         Effects of climate change on Snake River Chinook Salmon

 

 

6:00-9:00           Conference dinner

                           (Haggett North Main Dining Room)

 

 


 

THURSDAY JUNE 21

 

 

8:00-10:00                  Agroclimate risk assessment

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Jim Zidek, University of British Columbia

 

         Nathaniel Newlands, Agriculture Canada

         Canadian agriculture, climate change and extreme weather:
        Developing a credible database of gridded long-term nationwide
        daily agroclimatic data

        

         Jim Ramsay, McGill University

         Estimating the variation in the quantile function for precipitation
        over space and time

 

         Nhu Le, BC Cancer Agency, Vancouver

         Modelling precipitations fields for agroclimate risk management

 

 

 

8:00-10:00         Contributed IV: Forest fires, remote
                           sensing, and stochastic modeling

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Haiganoush Preisler, US Forest Service Albany

 

         Sorina Eftim, Johns Hopkins University

         Canada forest fires, transboundary air pollution and
        hospitalizations among the elderly in the Northeastern and Mid-
       
Atlantic regions of the USA in July 2002

 

         Don McKenzie, US Forest Service, Seattle

         Geospatial modeling of historical low-severity fire regimes

  

         Trevor Moffiet, University of Newcastle

         Relationship modelling on bounded spaces with example
         application to the estimation of forest foliage cover by remote sensing

 

         Johannes Breidenbach, Forest Research Institute Baden-Wuerttemberg

        Comparing methods to estimate above ground biomass by means
         of airborne lidar data

 

         Owen Hamel, NOAA Seattle

         A mathematical model of the bomb radiocarbon chronometer for
         use in fish age validation

 

10:00-10:30       Coffee break

 

10:30-12:30       The role of statistics in environmental policy
                           
(HUB 200)

         Chair: Ashley Steel, NOAA Fisheries Seattle

 

         Paul Mcelhany, NOAA Fisheries Seattle

         Sensitivity analysis of a model used in the management of ESA-
       
listed salmonids: making sense of 10,000 parameters

 

         Tanja Srebotnjak, Yale University

         Among the blind the one-eyed is king: a decision-tree model for
        dealing with incomplete information in environmental policy

 

         Marianne Turley, Bureau of Land Management, Oregon

         Statistics impact federal environmental policy!! Where? How? Why?

 

 

10:30-12:30       Measuring biodiversity and species interactions
                         
(HUB 209)

         Chair: Laurie Ainsworth, Simon Fraser University

 

         Andy Royle, US Geological Survey

         Hierarchical models for inference in (Meta)community systems

 

         Emily Silverman, US Fish and Wildlife Service Maryland

         Statistical approaches to measuring species' associations in mixed-
        
species bird flocks

 

         Rampal Etienne, University of Groningen

         The utility of the useless: lessons from ecological nihilism

 

 

 

12:30-2:00                  Lunch


 

2:00-3:00           Keynote Lecture II

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Peter Guttorp, University of Washington

 

         David Brillinger, University of California Berkeley

         Probabilistic risk modeling at the wildland-urban interface: the 2003 Cedar Fire

 

3:00-3:30           Coffee break

 

 

3:30-5:30           Forests, fires and stochastic modeling

                           (HUB 200)

         Chair: Charmaine Dean, Simon Fraser University

 

         Mike Flannigan, Canadian Forest Service, Sault Ste. Marie

         Climate change and forest fires in Canada

 

         Haiganoush Preisler, US Forest Service, Albany

         Effects of climate on wildland fires

 

         Steve Taylor, Canadian Forest Service, Victoria

         Use of stochastic simulation in downscaling climate change

         projections for modeling daily forest insect and host

         development: examples from B.C

 

 

 

3:30-5:30           Contributed V: Climate

                           (HUB 209)

         Chair: Veronica Berrocal, University of Washington

 

         Mark Greenwood, Montana State University

         Functional linear models for daily or yearly streamflow measures

 

         Michael Keim, University of Washington

         Characteristic scale analysis of arctic sea ice types using wavelets

 

         Peter Craigmile, Ohio State University

         Spatial variation in the influence of the North Atlantic oscillation on
         precipitation across Greenland

 

         Donald Percival, University of Washington

         Arctic sea-ice thickness: Evidence of decline from a multiple
        regression analysis incorporating long-range dependence

 

         Donald Noakes, Thompson Rivers University

         Decadal scale response of North Pacific ocean marine fisheries to
        regime shifts

 

         Lelys Guenni, Simon Bolivar University

         Synthesizing climate change projections for Venezuela using
        probabilistic Bayesian approach