Marianne Turley

Bureau of Land Management, Portland, Oregon

Statistics impacts federal environmental policy!! Where? How? Why?

In the western regions of Washington, Oregon, and northern California (U.S.A.), an environmental policy was developed for managing public lands within the biogeographic range of the northern spotted owl. Known as the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP), the plan is a terrific example of the development of an environmental policy.

In theory, voters elect leaders to represent their societal values about the environment. The leaders specify those values as objectives mandated by law. The land management agencies clarify the objectives and develop implementation management plans to carry out the objectives. The courts review the plans and suspend management activities if/when the agencies deviate from their mandates.

In practice, the process is not so simple. Environmental policies often require ambiguous, complex, competing, and even impossible objectives. An overview of the development of the NWFP and the role of science within this policy development is presented. Within the science effort, the role of statistics is increasing as court reviews and policymakers require more scientific rigor in the policy process. A few examples of the use of statistics within legal arguments for policy are presented. The importance of quantifying uncertainty and presenting risk outcomes to policymakers and the public is considered. The appropriate role of science in policy should be debated.