Adrian E. Raftery

Adrian is Blumstein-Jordan Professor of Statistics and Sociology, and Adjunct Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. He is also a faculty affiliate of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences and the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology. He works on the development of new statistical methods for the social and environmental sciences. An elected member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, he was identified as the world's most cited researcher in mathematics for the decade 1995-2005 by Thomson-ISI. He has supervised 34 Ph.D. graduates, of whom 21 hold or have held tenure-track university faculty positions, and has 159 academic descendants.

• Working Group on Applied, Bayesian and Compuational Statistics, Spring 2024
• Working Group on Model-Based Clustering Summer Session: Bertinoro, July 22-26, 2024.
• Bayesian Methods for the Social Sciences II, 16-18 Oct 2024, Amsterdam (Netherlands).
• X/Twitter feed

News

• Website update: This website got its annual major update on May 7, 2024. New publications were added.
• Hollander lecture: Adrian gave the Myles Hollander Distinguished Lecturer at Florida State University in October 2023.
• Psychometric Keynote address: Adrian will give a keynote address at the International Meeting of the Psychometric Society in Prague, July 2024.
• David Finney Lecture: Adrian will deliver the David Finney Lecture at the University of Edinburgh in October 2024.

Recent Book, Journal Articles, Preprints (since 2023)

Recent book on mclust and model-based clustering:

Statistical methodology

• Easily Computed Marginal Likelihoods from Posterior Simulation Using the THAMES Estimator.
• Multiple Imputation of Hierarchical Nonlinear Time Series Data with an Application to School Enrollment Data.
• Bayesian hyperbolic multidimensional scaling. Preprint.
• Model-Based Clustering.
• Effect of model space priors on statistical inference with model uncertainty.
• Latent Position Network Models.

Statistical demography

• Bringing Age Back In: Accounting for Population Age Distribution in Forecasting Migration.
• Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.
• Bayesian projections of total fertility rate conditional on the United Nations sustainable development goals.
• Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty.
• Probabilistic Population Forecasting: Short to Very Long Term.

These papers are being made available here to facilitate the timely dissemination of scholarly work; copyright and all related rights are retained by the copyright holders.

Last major update, May 7, 2024.

Copyright 2005-2024 by Adrian E. Raftery and University of Washington; all rights reserved.