Adrian E. Raftery

Adrian is the Boeing International Professor of Statistics and Sociology, and Adjunct Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. He is also a faculty affiliate of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences and the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology. He works on the development of new statistical methods for the social and environmental sciences. An elected member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, he was identified as the world's most cited researcher in mathematics for the decade 1995-2005 by Thomson-ISI. He has supervised 32 Ph.D. graduates, of whom 21 hold or have held tenure-track university faculty positions.

• Working group, Spring 2022
• Twitter feed

News

• Website update: This website got its annual major update on April 28, 2022. New publications were added.

• Chaire d'Excellence: In Fall 2021 and Fall 2022, Adrian is holding a Chaire d'Excellence from the Fondation des Sciences Mathématiques de Paris (FSMP) as a visiting professor at the Laboratoire MAP5 (Department of Applied Mathematics at Paris 5), Université Paris-Cité . He gave a series of 20 lectures on Statistical Demography, and will return in Fall 2022.

• Mindel Sheps Award: Adrian received the 2022 Mindel C. Sheps Award for mathematical demography from the Population Association of America

• Thompson Lecture: Adrian gave the James R. Thompson Distinguished Lecture at Rice University in January 2022.

• Keyfitz Lecture: Adrian gave the Keyfitz Lecture in Mathematics and the Social Sciences at the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences, University of Toronto, in February 2022.

• ISBA Foundational Lecture: Adrian will give a plenary Foundational Lecture at the World Meeting of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) in June 2022.

• RSS Campion Lecture: Adrian will give the Campion (President's Invited) Lecture at the Royal Statistical Society's 2022 International Conference in September 2022.

  
  

Recent Journal Articles and Preprints (since 2021)

Statistical demography

• Probabilistic Population Forecasting: Short to Very Long Term.
• Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections.
• Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.
• Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.

Statistical climate science

• The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates.
• Probabilistic Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness.
• Contour Models for Boundaries Enclosing Star-Shaped and Approximately Star-Shaped Polygons.
• Probabilistic forecasting of the Arctic sea ice edge with contour modeling.
• Country-based emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 C target.

Other

• Comparing methods for statistical inference with model uncertainty.
• Balancing Inferential Integrity and Disclosure Risk via Model Targeted Masking and Multiple Imputation.
• Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Infections from Deaths, Confirmed Cases, Tests, and Random Surveys.
• The vote Package: Single Transferable Vote and Other Electoral Systems in R.

These papers are being made available here to facilitate the timely dissemination of scholarly work; copyright and all related rights are retained by the copyright holders.

Model-Based Clustering book available for free download

Last major update, April 29, 2022.

Copyright 2005-2022 by Adrian E. Raftery and University of Washington; all rights reserved.