Joslyn, S., Nadav-Greenberg, L. & Nicholls, R. M. (2009). Probability of precipitation: Assessment and enhancement of end-user understanding. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 185-193.

Joslyn, S.L. & Nichols, R. (in press). Probability or frequency? Expressing forecast uncertainty in public weather forecasts. Meteorological Applications.

Nadav-Greenberg, L., Joslyn, S (in press). Uncertainty forecasts improve decision-making among non-experts. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 2, 24-47.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T. and Sloughter, J. M. (2008). EnsembleBMA: An R package for probabilistic forecasting using ensembles and Bayesian model averaging. Technical Report no. 516R, Department of Statistics, University of Washington.

Gneiting, T. (2008). Quantiles as optimal point predictors. Technical Report no. 538, Department of Statistics, University of Washington.

Gneiting, T. (2008). Editorial: Probabilistic forecasting. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 171, 319-321.

Gneiting, T., Stanberry, L. I., Grimit, E. P, Held, L. and Johnson, N. A. (2008). Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with applications to ensemble predictions of surface winds. Test, 17, 211-235.

Gneiting, T., Stanberry, L. I., Grimit, E. P, Held, L. and Johnson, N. A. (2008). Rejoinder on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with applications to ensemble predictions of surface winds. Test, 17, 256-264.

Joslyn, S. & Jones, D. (2008). Strategies in naturalistic decision-making: A cognitive task analysis of naval weather forecasting. In J.M. Schraagen, S. (Ed) Naturalistic Decision Making and Macrocognition. Ashgate Publishing 183-201.

Joslyn, S., Nadav-Greenberg, L. & Nicholls, R. M. (in press) Probability of precipitation: Assessment and enhancement of end-user understanding. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Joslyn, S., Nadav-Greenberg, L., and Taing, M. U., (2008) The effects of wording on the understanding and use of uncertainty information in a threshold forecasting decision. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 23, 55-72.

Nadav-Greenberg, L., Joslyn, S., and Taing, M. U., (2008) The effect of weather forecast uncertainty visualization on decision-making. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 2, 24-47.

Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T. (2007). Combining spatial statistical and ensemble information in probabilistic weather forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1386-1402.

Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T. and Steed, R. (2007). Probabilistic weather forecasting for winter road maintenance. Technical Report no. 511, Department of Statistics, University of Washington.

Gneiting, T., Genton, M. G. and Guttorp, P. (2007). Geostatistical space-time models, stationarity, separability and full symmetry. In Finkenstaedt, B., Held, L. and Isham, V. (eds.), Statistical Methods for Spatio-Temporal Systems, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, pp. 151-175.

Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A. E. (2007). Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102, 359-378.

Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Raftery, A. E. (2007). Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, 69, 243-268.

Grimit, E. P. and Mass, C. F. (2007). Measuring the ensemble spread-error relationship with a probabilistic approach: Stochastic ensemble results. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 203-221.

Joslyn, S., Pak, K., Jones, D. Pyles, J. and Hunt, E., (2007) The effect of probabilistic information on threshold forecasts. Weather & Forecasting, 22, 804-812.

Sloughter, J. M., Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T. and Fraley, C. (2007). Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3209-3220.

Wilson, L. J., Beauregard, S., Raftery, A. E. and Verret, R. (2007). Calibrated surface temperature forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1364–1385.

Ancell, B. C. and Mass, C. F. (2006). Structure, growth rates, and tangent linear accuracy of adjoint sensitivities with respect to horizontal and vertical resolution. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 2971-2988.

Gneiting, T., Larson, K., Westrick, K, Genton, M. G. and Aldrich, E. (2006). Calibrated probabilistic forecasting at the Stateline wind energy center: The regime-switching space-time method. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101, 968-979.

Grimit, E. P., Gneiting, T., Berrocal, V. J. and Johnson, N. A. (2006). The continuous ranked probability score for circular variables and its application to mesoscale forecast ensemble verification. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132, 2925-2942.

Hunt, E. and Joslyn, S (2006). Stages of concern for laboratory, field, and social issues in applying cognitive psychology. In Hoffman, R. R. (ed.), Expertise out of Context, Erlbaum, Mahwah, New Jersey.

Tewson, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2006). Real-time calibrated probabilistic forecasting web site. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 87, 880-882

Baars, J. A. and Mass, C. F. (2005). Performance of National Weather Service forecasts compared to operational, consensus, and weighted model output statistics. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 1034-1047.

Fuentes, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). Model evaluation and spatial interpolation by Bayesian combination of observations with outputs from numerical models. Biometrics, 66, 36--45.

Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science, 310, 248-249.

Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E., Westveld, A. and Goldman, T. (2005). Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1098-1118.

Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M. (2005). Using Bayesian Model Averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1155-1174.

Baars, J., Mass, C. F. and Albright, M. (2004). Performance of National Weather Service forecasts versus Model Output Statistics.

Gel, Y., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T. (2004). Calibrated probabilistic mesoscale weather field forecasting: The geostatistical output perturbation (GOP) method. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99, 575-590.

Grimit, E. P. and Mass, C. F. (2004). Forecasting mesoscale uncertainty: Short-range ensemble forecast error predictability. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Eckel, F. A. (2003). Effective mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 224 pp.

Grimit, E. P. and Mass, C. F. (2002). Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest. Weather and Forecasting, 17, 192-205.

Grimit, E. P. (2001). Implementation and evaluation of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest. M.S. thesis, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 111 pp.