My biostatistics research has focused on dveloping Bayesian methods for infectious disease epidemiology, case-control studies, survival analysis, health services and the analysis of gene expression data. Click here for my gene expression work.
Jiang, B., Raftery, A.E., Steele, R.J. and Wang, N. (2025). A privacy-preserved and high-utility synthesis strategy for risk-based stratified subgroups of the Canadian Scleroderma Patient Registry data. Annals of Applied Statistics 19 (2): 1240-1269.
Infectious disease epidemiology
Baraff, A.J., McCormick, T.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Estimating uncertainty in Respondent-Driven Sampling
using a tree bootstrap method.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:14668--14673.
Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (2015). Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. Statistics and Its Interface, 8:125-136. Earlier version.
Bao, L., Salomon, J.A., Brown, T., Raftery, A.E. and Hogan, D. (2012). Modeling HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2011. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88:i3-i10.
Raftery, A.E. and L. Bao. (2010). Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling. Biometrics 66:1162-1173.
Brown, T., L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley, J. Stover, and P. Gerland (2010). Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86:i3--i10.
Bao, L. and A.E. Raftery (2010). A stochastic infection rate model for estimating and projecting national HIV prevalence rates. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86:i93--i99.
Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Brown, T. (2008). Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84:i11-i16.
Brown, T., Salomon, J.A., Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Gouws, E. (2008). Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84:i5-i10.
Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Clark, S.J. (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Annals of Applied Statistics, 1, 229-248.
Case-Control Studies
Viallefont, V., Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (2001).
Variable selection and Bayesian model averaging in epidemiological
case-control studies. Statistics in Medicine, 20, 3215-3230.
Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (1996). Model selection for generalized linear models via GLIB, with application to epidemiology. In Bayesian Biostatistics (D.A. Berry and D.K. Stangl, eds.), New York: Marcel Dekker, pp. 321--354. Earlier version (Postscript).
Survival Analysis
Volinsky, C.T. and Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Bayesian information criterion
for censored survival models.
Biometrics, 56, 256--262.
Volinsky, C.T., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E. and Kronmal, R.A. (1997). Bayesian model averaging in proportional hazard models: Assessing stroke risk. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C---Applied Statistics, 46, 433-448.
Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Volinsky, C.T. (1995). Accounting for model uncertainty in survival analysis improves predictive performance (with Discussion). In Bayesian Statistics 5 (J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid and A.F.M. Smith, eds.), Oxford University Press, pp. 323-349. Earlier version (ps).
Health Services
Kahn, M.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1996).
Discharge rates of Medicare stroke
patients to skilled nursing facilities: Bayesian logistic regression with
unobserved heterogeneity.
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 29-41.
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Updated August 13, 2025
Copyright 2005-2025 by Adrian E. Raftery; all rights reserved.