Liu, P.R., Ševčíková , H., and Raftery, A.E.
Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual
Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty.
*Journal of Statistical Software*, 106: issue 8.

Raftery, A.E. and Ševčíková , H. (2023).
Probabilistic Population Forecasting: Short to Very Long Term.
*International Journal of Forecasting* 39: 73--97.

Welch, N.G. and Raftery, A.E. (2022).
Probabilistic Forecasts of International Bilateral Migration Flows.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 119 (35): e2203822119.

Rennert, K., Prest, B.C., Pizer, W.A., Newell, R.G., Anthoff, D., Kington, C., Rennels, L., Cooke, R., Raftery, A.E., ,Ševčíková , H. and Errickson, F. (2022).
The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic
Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates.
*Brookings Papers on Economic Activity* 2021: 223--305.

Pearce, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100
using Bayesian population projections.
*Demographic Research* 44: 1271-1294.

- Pearce, M., Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Will this be a record-breaking century for human longevity?
*Significance*18:6-7. - Pearce, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
The maximum human life span will likely increase this century,
but not by more than a decade.
*The Conversation*, August 10, 2021.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.
*Journal of Official Statistics*, 37:591-610.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Country-based emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond
nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 C target.
*Communications Earth and Environment* 2:Article 29.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.
*Annals of Applied Statistics* 15:437--459.

Liu, D.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2020).
How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?
*Population and Development Review* 46:409--441.
UW News story.
N-IUSSP online news magazine article.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2020).
Accounting for Uncertainty About Past Values In Probabilistic Projections
of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 14:661-705.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2020).
Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both sexes jointly in 69 countries.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 14:381-408.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
Estimation of emigration, return migration, and
transit migration between all pairs of countries.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 116:116--122.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2018).
Estimating large correlation matrices in international migration.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 12:940-970.
Earlier version.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2018). Accounting for Uncertainty About Past Values In Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries.

Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E. and Gerland, P. (2018).
Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates.
*Demographic Research* 38:1843--1884.

Sharrow, D.J., Godwin, J., He, Y., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2018).
Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries
with Generalized HIV/AIDS Epidemics.
*Population Studies* 72:1--15.
Earlier version.

Godwin, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2017).
Bayesian Projection of Life Expectancy Accounting for the HIV/AIDS Epidemic.
*Demographic Research* 37:1549--1610.

Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.
*Statistical Analysis and Data Mining* 9:397-410.
Earlier version.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
bayesPop: Probabilistic population projections.
*Journal of Statistical Software* 75(5):1-29.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Estimating Large Correlation Matrices for International Migration. Technical Report no. 644, Department of Statistics, and Working Paper no. 154, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington. Also arXiv:1605.08759.

Azose, J. J., Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 113:6460-6465.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2016).
Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less
developed and developed countries.
*Population Studies* 70:21-37.

Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Kantorova, V., Gerland, P.
and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population
Projections.
Chapter 15 in *Dynamic Demographic Analysis*
(R. Schoen, ed.), pages 285-310, Springer, New York.
Earlier version.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2015).
Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age:
Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society*
178:977-1007.

Maltiel, R., Raftery, A.E., McCormick, T.H. and Baraff, A. (2015).
Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 9:1247-1277.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2015).
Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration Rates.
*Demography* 52:1627-1650.

Alkema, L., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. and Wilmoth, J.R. (2015).
The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections:
An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty.
*Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting* 37:19-24.

Bijak, J., Alberts, I., Alho, J., Bryant, J., Buettner, T., Falkingham, J.,
Forster, J.J., Gerland, P., King, T., Onorante, L., Keilman, N., O'Hagan, A.,
Owens, D., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and
Smith, P.W.F. (2015).
Uncertain Population Forecasting: A Case for Practical Uses.
*Journal of Official Statistics* 31:537-544.

Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (2015).
Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh
Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.
*Statistics and Its Interface*, 8:125-136.

Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. [co-first authors];
Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T.,
Alkema, L., Fosdick, B.K., Chunn, J.L., Lalic, N., Bay, G.,
Buettner, T., Heilig, G.K. and Wilmoth, J. (2014).
World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century.
*Science* 346:234-237.

Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L. and Gerland, P. (2014).
Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations.
*Statistical Science*, 29:58-68.

Sharrow, D.J., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV
Epidemics. *PLoS One*, 9:article e96447.

Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N. and Gerland, P. (2014).
Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy.
*Demographic Research*, 30:795--822.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling
Between-Country Correlations.
*Demographic Research* 30:1011--1034.

Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and
Ševčíková , H. (2013).
Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries.
*Demography*, 50:777-801.

Wheldon, M., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2013).
Estimating Demographic Parameters
with Uncertainty from Fragmentary Data.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 108:96-110.

Raftery, A.E., Li. N., Ševčíková , H.,
Gerland, P. and Heilig, G.K. (2012).
Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 109:13915-13921.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2012).
Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources
and Assessing its Uncertainty.
*Demographic Research* 26:331-362.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J., Pelletier, F.,
Buettner, T. and Helig, G. (2011).
Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries.
*Demography* 48:815-839.

Ševčíková , H., Alkema, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2011).
bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic
Projections of the Total Fertility Rate.
*Journal of Statistical Software* 43:1-29.

Raftery, A.E. and L. Bao. (2010).
Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS
Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling.
*Biometrics* 66:1162-1173.

Brown, T., L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley,
J. Stover, and P. Gerland (2010).
Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era:
the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 86:i3--i10.

Bao, L. and A.E. Raftery (2010).
A stochastic infection rate model for estimating and projecting national
HIV prevalence rates.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 86:i93--i99.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Brown, T. (2008).
Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in
national HIV prevalence estimates.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 84:i11-i16.

Brown, T., Salomon, J.A., Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Gouws, E. (2008).
Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics:
The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 84:i5-i10.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2008). Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty. Working Paper no. 89, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Clark, S.J. (2007).
Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence
using Bayesian melding.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 1, 229-248.

Baraff, A.J., McCormick, T.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Estimating uncertainty in Respondent-Driven Sampling
using a tree bootstrap method.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 113:14668--14673.

Rastelli, R., Friel, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Properties of latent variable network models.
*Network Science* 4:407--432.
Earlier version.

Raftery, A.E., Niu, X., Hoff, P.D. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012).
Fast Inference for the
Latent Space Network Model Using a Case-Control Approximate Likelihood.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 21:909-919.

Krivitsky, P., Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Hoff, P. (2009).
Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in
Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Effects Models.
*Social Networks* 31:204-213.

Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Tantrum, J. (2007).
Model-based clustering
for social networks (with Discussion).
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A*,
170, 301-354.

Hoff, P., Raftery, A.E. and Handcock, M.S. (2002).
Latent Space Approaches to Social Network
Analysis.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 97, 1090-1098.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
Comparing explanations of fertility
decline using event history models and unobserved heterogeneity.
*Sociological Methods and Research*, 28, 35-60.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M., Aghajanian, A. and Kahn, M.J. (1996).
Event history analysis of World Fertility Survey data.
*Mathematical Population Studies, 6, *129-153.
Earlier technical report version (Postscript).

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M. and Aghajanian, A. (1995).
Demand or ideation? Evidence from the Iranian marital fertility decline.
*Demography, 32, *159-182.

Biblarz, T., Raftery, A.E. and Bucur, A. (1997).
Family structure and social mobility.
*Social Forces, 75*, 1319-1339.

Biblarz, T.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1993).
The effects of family disruption
on social mobility.
*American Sociological Review, 58, *97-109.

Raftery, A.E. (1985).
Social mobility measures for cross-national comparisons.
*Quality and Quantity, 19, *167-182.

Raftery, A.E. (1983).
Comment on ``Gaps and glissandos . . .''.
*American Sociological Review, 48, *581-583.

Hout, M., Raftery, A.E. and Bell, E.O. (1993).
Making the grade: Educational
stratification in the United States, 1925-1989.
In *Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in
Thirteen Countries, *(Y. Shavit and P. Bloesfeld, eds.),
Boulder: Westview Press, pp. 25-50.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M. (1985).
Does Irish education approach the meritocratic ideal? A logistic
analysis.
*Economic and Social Review, 16, *115-140.

Mulder, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
BIC extensions for order-constrained model selection.
*Sociological Methods and Research*, Article Number: 0049124119882459.

Raftery, A.E. (2001).
Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Selective Review.
*Sociological Methodology*, 31, 1-45.

Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Vignette.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 95, 654-661.

Raftery, A.E. (1995).
Bayesian model selection in social research
(with Discussion). *Sociological Methodology*, 25, 111-196.

Discussion: Avoiding model selection
in Bayesian social research, by A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin.

Discussion: Better rules for better
decisions, by R. M. Hauser.

Rejoinder: Model selection is
unavoidable in social research, by A. E. Raftery.

Raftery, A.E. (1993).
Bayesian model selection in structural equation models.
In *Testing Stuctural Equation Models *(K.A. Bollen and J.S. Long, eds.),
Beverly Hills: Sage, pp. 163-180.
Earlier version.

Raftery, A.E. (1986).
Choosing models for cross-classifications.
*American Sociological Review, 51, *145-146.

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Updated May 7, 2024.

Copyright 2005-2024 by Adrian E. Raftery; all rights reserved.