Adrian Raftery: Sociology and Demography Research

Population Projection and Estimation

Liu, P.R., Ševčíková , H., and Raftery, A.E. Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Software, in press. Preprint.

Yu, C., ,Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E., and Curran, S. Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections. Demography, in press.

Welch, N.G. and Raftery, A.E. (2022). Probabilistic Forecasts of International Bilateral Migration Flows. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (35): e2203822119.

Raftery, A.E. and Ševčíková , H. (2023). Probabilistic Population Forecasting: Short to Very Long Term. International Journal of Forecasting 39: 73--97.

Rennert, K., Prest, B.C., Pizer, W.A., Newell, R.G., Anthoff, D., Kington, C., Rennels, L., Cooke, R., Raftery, A.E., ,Ševčíková , H. and Errickson, F. (2022). The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2021: 223--305.

Pearce, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections. Demographic Research 44: 1271-1294.

Pearce, M., Raftery, A.E. (2021). Will this be a record-breaking century for human longevity? Significance 18:6-7.
Pearce, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). The maximum human life span will likely increase this century, but not by more than a decade. The Conversation, August 10, 2021.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy. Journal of Official Statistics, 37:591-610.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Country-based emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 C target. Communications Earth and Environment 2:Article 29.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy. Annals of Applied Statistics 15:437--459.

Liu, D.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline? Population and Development Review 46:409--441. UW News story. N-IUSSP online news magazine article.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). Accounting for Uncertainty About Past Values In Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Annals of Applied Statistics, 14:661-705.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both sexes jointly in 69 countries. Annals of Applied Statistics, 14:381-408.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019). Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116:116--122.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2018). Estimating large correlation matrices in international migration. Annals of Applied Statistics, 12:940-970. Earlier version.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2018). Accounting for Uncertainty About Past Values In Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries.

Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E. and Gerland, P. (2018). Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates. Demographic Research 38:1843--1884.

Sharrow, D.J., Godwin, J., He, Y., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2018). Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries with Generalized HIV/AIDS Epidemics. Population Studies 72:1--15. Earlier version.

Godwin, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2017). Bayesian Projection of Life Expectancy Accounting for the HIV/AIDS Epidemic. Demographic Research 37:1549--1610.

Raftery, A.E. (2016). Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 9:397-410. Earlier version.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). bayesPop: Probabilistic population projections. Journal of Statistical Software 75(5):1-29.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Estimating Large Correlation Matrices for International Migration. Technical Report no. 644, Department of Statistics, and Working Paper no. 154, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington. Also arXiv:1605.08759.

Azose, J. J., Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:6460-6465.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2016). Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and developed countries. Population Studies 70:21-37.

Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Kantorova, V., Gerland, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections. Chapter 15 in Dynamic Demographic Analysis (R. Schoen, ed.), pages 285-310, Springer, New York. Earlier version.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2015). Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society 178:977-1007.

Maltiel, R., Raftery, A.E., McCormick, T.H. and Baraff, A. (2015). Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9:1247-1277.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2015). Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration Rates. Demography 52:1627-1650.

Alkema, L., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. and Wilmoth, J.R. (2015). The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 37:19-24.

Bijak, J., Alberts, I., Alho, J., Bryant, J., Buettner, T., Falkingham, J., Forster, J.J., Gerland, P., King, T., Onorante, L., Keilman, N., O'Hagan, A., Owens, D., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and Smith, P.W.F. (2015). Uncertain Population Forecasting: A Case for Practical Uses. Journal of Official Statistics 31:537-544.

Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (2015). Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. Statistics and Its Interface, 8:125-136.

Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. [co-first authors]; Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., Alkema, L., Fosdick, B.K., Chunn, J.L., Lalic, N., Bay, G., Buettner, T., Heilig, G.K. and Wilmoth, J. (2014). World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century. Science 346:234-237.

Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L. and Gerland, P. (2014). Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations. Statistical Science, 29:58-68.

Sharrow, D.J., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics. PLoS One, 9:article e96447.

Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N. and Gerland, P. (2014). Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy. Demographic Research, 30:795--822.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations. Demographic Research 30:1011--1034.

Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and Ševčíková , H. (2013). Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. Demography, 50:777-801.

Wheldon, M., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2013). Estimating Demographic Parameters with Uncertainty from Fragmentary Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108:96-110.

Raftery, A.E., Li. N., Ševčíková , H., Gerland, P. and Heilig, G.K. (2012). Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109:13915-13921.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2012). Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty. Demographic Research 26:331-362.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T. and Helig, G. (2011). Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography 48:815-839.

Ševčíková , H., Alkema, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2011). bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate. Journal of Statistical Software 43:1-29.

Raftery, A.E. and L. Bao. (2010). Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling. Biometrics 66:1162-1173.

Brown, T., L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley, J. Stover, and P. Gerland (2010). Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86:i3--i10.

Bao, L. and A.E. Raftery (2010). A stochastic infection rate model for estimating and projecting national HIV prevalence rates. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86:i93--i99.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Brown, T. (2008). Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84:i11-i16.

Brown, T., Salomon, J.A., Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Gouws, E. (2008). Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84:i5-i10.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2008). Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty. Working Paper no. 89, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Clark, S.J. (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Annals of Applied Statistics, 1, 229-248.

Social Networks

Baraff, A.J., McCormick, T.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Estimating uncertainty in Respondent-Driven Sampling using a tree bootstrap method. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:14668--14673.

Rastelli, R., Friel, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Properties of latent variable network models. Network Science 4:407--432. Earlier version.

Raftery, A.E., Niu, X., Hoff, P.D. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012). Fast Inference for the Latent Space Network Model Using a Case-Control Approximate Likelihood. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 21:909-919.

Krivitsky, P., Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Hoff, P. (2009). Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Effects Models. Social Networks 31:204-213.

Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Tantrum, J. (2007). Model-based clustering for social networks (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 170, 301-354.

Hoff, P., Raftery, A.E. and Handcock, M.S. (2002). Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97, 1090-1098.

Fertility

Merli, G. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China's population policies. Demography, 37, 109--126.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Comparing explanations of fertility decline using event history models and unobserved heterogeneity. Sociological Methods and Research, 28, 35-60.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M., Aghajanian, A. and Kahn, M.J. (1996). Event history analysis of World Fertility Survey data. Mathematical Population Studies, 6, 129-153. Earlier technical report version (Postscript).

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M. and Aghajanian, A. (1995). Demand or ideation? Evidence from the Iranian marital fertility decline. Demography, 32, 159-182.

Social Mobility and Family Structure

Biblarz, T.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Family structure, educational attainment and socioeconomic success: Rethinking the Pathology of Matriarchy'. American Journal of Sociology, 105, 321-365.

Biblarz, T., Raftery, A.E. and Bucur, A. (1997). Family structure and social mobility. Social Forces, 75, 1319-1339.

Biblarz, T.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1993). The effects of family disruption on social mobility. American Sociological Review, 58, 97-109.

Raftery, A.E. (1985). Social mobility measures for cross-national comparisons. Quality and Quantity, 19, 167-182.

Raftery, A.E. (1983). Comment on ``Gaps and glissandos . . .''. American Sociological Review, 48, 581-583.

Educational Stratification

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M (1993). Maximally maintained inequality: Expansion, reform and opportunity in Irish education, 1921-1975. Sociology of Education, 66, 41-62.

Hout, M., Raftery, A.E. and Bell, E.O. (1993). Making the grade: Educational stratification in the United States, 1925-1989. In Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in Thirteen Countries, (Y. Shavit and P. Bloesfeld, eds.), Boulder: Westview Press, pp. 25-50.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M. (1985). Does Irish education approach the meritocratic ideal? A logistic analysis. Economic and Social Review, 16, 115-140.

Quantitative Methodology

(Much of my statistical research is relevant to sociology and motivated by it, particularly the work on Bayesian model averaging and model selection, but here I include mostly papers published in the sociological literature.)

Mulder, J. and Raftery, A.E. BIC extensions for order-constrained model selection. Sociological Methods and Research, to appear.

Raftery, A.E. (2001). Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Selective Review. Sociological Methodology, 31, 1-45.

Raftery, A.E. (2000). Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Vignette. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 654-661.

Raftery, A.E. (1995). Bayesian model selection in social research (with Discussion). Sociological Methodology, 25, 111-196.
Discussion: Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research, by A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin.
Discussion: Better rules for better decisions, by R. M. Hauser.
Rejoinder: Model selection is unavoidable in social research, by A. E. Raftery.

Raftery, A.E. (1993). Bayesian model selection in structural equation models. In Testing Stuctural Equation Models (K.A. Bollen and J.S. Long, eds.), Beverly Hills: Sage, pp. 163-180. Earlier version.

Raftery, A.E. (1986). Choosing models for cross-classifications. American Sociological Review, 51, 145-146.

Industrial Accidents

Dwyer, T.P. and Raftery, A.E. (1991). Industrial accidents are produced by the social relations of work: A sociological theory of industrial accidents. Applied Ergonomics, 22, 167-178.

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Updated May 10, 2023.