Adrian Raftery: Spatial Statistics Research

There are two main strands in my spatial statistics research: geostatistical methods, and spatial point processes. I have been using and extending geostatistical methods for atmospheric science problems in weather forecasting (Gel et al 2004, Berrocal et al 2007), air pollution (Fuentes and Raftery 2005), and wind energy (Haslett and Raftery 1989).

We have been developing methods for detecting features in spatial point processes such as earthquakes, minefields and plants. Methods based on model-based clustering including a uniform noise process have been quite successful (Stanford and Raftery 2000; Dasgupta and Raftery 1998; Murtagh and Raftery 1984). Mixture models more generally have worked well for this class of problems, including distinguishing between them using partial Bayes factors (Walsh and Raftery 2005), nearest neighbor cleaning (Byers and Raftery 1998), and explicit Bayesian modeling using Markov chain Monte Carlo (Byers and Raftery 2002, Walsh and Raftery 2002).

Papers

Chen, X., Raftery, A.E., Battisti, D.S. and Liu, P.R. (2022). Long-Term Probabilistic Temperature Projections for All Locations. Climate Dynamics 60: 2303--2314.

Director, H.M. and Raftery, A.E. (2022). Contour Models for Physical Boundaries Enclosing Star-Shaped and Approximately Star-Shaped Polygons. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C-Applied Statistics 71: 1688--1720. Preprint.

Gao, P.A., Director, H.M., Bitz, C.M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Probabilistic Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-021-00480-0

Director, H., Raftery, A.E. and Bitz, C. (2021). Probabilistic forecasting of the Arctic sea ice edge with contour modeling. Annals of Applied Statistics, 15:711-726. (Preprint.)

Director, H.M., Raftery, A.E. and Bitz, C.M. (2017). Improved Sea Ice Forecasting Through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction. Journal of Climate 30:9493--9510.

Berrocal, V.J., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2010). Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105:522-537.

Berrocal, V.J., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2008). Probabilistic quantitative precipitation field forecasting using a two-stage spatial model. Annals of Applied Statistics 2: 1170-1193.

Berrocal, V., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2007). Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1386-1402.

Fuentes, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). Model evaluation and spatial interpolation by Bayesian combination of observations with outputs from numerical models. Biometrics, 66, 36--45.

Walsh, D.C.I. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). Classification of mixtures of spatial point processes via partial Bayes factors. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 14, 139-154.

Gel, Y., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2004). Calibrated probabilistic mesoscale weather field forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) method (with Discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99, 575-590.
Earlier technical report version with color figures.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Bayesian Estimation and Segmentation of Spatial Point Processes using Voronoi Tilings. In Spatial Cluster Modelling (A.G. Lawson and D. G.T. Denison, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press. Earlier technical report version. (Postscript).

Walsh, D.C.I and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Detecting mines in minefields with linear characteristics. Technometrics, 44, 34-44.

Stanford, D.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Principal curve clustering with noise. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Analysis, 22, 601-609.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1998). Nearest neighbor clutter removal for estimating features in spatial point processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93, 577-584.

Dasgupta, A. and Raftery, A.E. (1998). Detecting features in spatial point processes with clutter via model-based clustering. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93, 294-302.

Raftery, A.E. (1994). Change point and change curve modeling in stochastic processes and spatial statistics. Journal of Applied Statistical Science, 1, 403-424. Earlier technical report version.

Taplin, R.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1994). Analysis of agricultural field trials in the presence of outliers and fertility jumps. Biometrics, 50, 764-781.

Haslett, J. and Raftery, A.E. (1989). Space-time modelling with long-memory dependence: Assessing Ireland's wind power resource (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics, 38, 1-50.

Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1984). Fitting straight lines to point patterns. Pattern Recognition, 17, 479-483.

Raftery, A.E., Haslett, J. and McColl, E. (1982). Wind power: a space-time process? In Time series analysis: theory and practice 2 (O.D. Anderson, ed.), North-Holland, pp. 191-202.

Fuchs, C., Broniatowski, M. and Raftery, A.E. (1981). Étude de la division cellulaire dans le meristème plan de la feuille du Tropaeolum peregrinum L. I. La distribution des mitoses dans une zone réduite de panenchyme pallisadique relève-t-elle du hasard? Comptes rendus de l'Académie des Sciences de Paris, série III, 292, 347-352.

Fuchs, C., Broniatowski, M. and Raftery, A.E. (1981). Étude de la division cellulaire dans le meristème plan de la feuille de Tropaeolum peregrinum L. II. Structures presentées par la distribution des mitoses. Comptes rendus de l'Académie des Sciences de Paris, série III, 292, 385-387.

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Updated May 10, 2023.