Yu, C., ,Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E., and Curran, S.
Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.
*Demography*, in press.

Porwal, A. and Raftery, A.E.
Effect of model space priors on statistical inference with model uncertainty.
*New England Journal of Statistics and Data Science*, in press.

Raftery, A.E. and Ševčíková , H. (2023).
Probabilistic Population Forecasting: Short to Very Long Term.
*International Journal of Forecasting* 39: 73--97.

Gormley, I.C., Murphy, T.B. and Raftery, A.E. (2023).
Model-Based Clustering.
*Annual Review of Statistics and its Applications* 10: 573--595.

Zeppetello, Z.V., Raftery, A.E. and Battisti, D.S. (2022).
A Dangerous Future: Probabilistic Projections of
Increased Heat Stress Driven By Global Climate Change.
*Communications Earth and Environment* 3: article 183.

- Extreme Heat Will Change Us.
(
*New York Times*interactive feature.)

Chen, X., Raftery, A.E., Battisti, D.S. and Liu, P.R. (2022).
Long-Term Probabilistic Temperature Projections for All Locations.
*Climate Dynamics* 60: 2303--2314.

Director, H.M. and Raftery, A.E. (2022).
Contour Models for Physical Boundaries Enclosing Star-Shaped and Approximately Star-Shaped Polygons.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C-Applied Statistics* 71: 1688--1720.
Preprint.

Rennert, K., Prest, B.C., Pizer, W.A., Newell, R.G., Anthoff, D., Kington, C., Rennels, L., Cooke, R., Raftery, A.E., ,Ševčíková , H. and Errickson, F. (2022).
The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic
Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates.
*Brookings Papers on Economic Activity* 2021: 223--305.

Welch, N.G. and Raftery, A.E. (2022).
Probabilistic Forecasts of International Bilateral Migration Flows.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 119 (35): e2203822119.

Porwal, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2022).
Comparing methods for statistical inference with model uncertainty.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, 119:2120737119.

Jiang, B., Raftery, A.E., Steele, R.J. and Wang, N. (2022).
Balancing Inferential Integrity and Disclosure Risk via Model Targeted
Masking and Multiple Imputation.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 117:52-66.

- Pearce, M., Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Will this be a record-breaking century for human longevity?
*Significance*18:6-7. - Pearce, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
The maximum human life span will likely increase this century,
but not by more than a decade.
*The Conversation*, August 10, 2021.

Gao, P.A., Director, H.M., Bitz, C.M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Probabilistic Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness.
*Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics*,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-021-00480-0

Irons, N.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Infections from Deaths, Confirmed Cases, Tests, and Random Surveys.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 118:e2103272118.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.
*Journal of Official Statistics*, 37:591-610.

Director, H., Raftery, A.E. and Bitz, C. (2021).
Probabilistic forecasting of the Arctic sea ice edge with contour modeling.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 15:711-726.
(Preprint.)

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Country-based emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond
nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 C target.
*Communications Earth and Environment* 2:Article 29.
UW News article.
Washington Post article.
Spring Nature Sustainability Community post.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.
*Annals of Applied Statistics* 15:437--459.

Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and Silverman, B.W. (2021).
The **vote** Package: Single Transferable Vote and Other Electoral Systems in R.
*R Journal*, 13: 673-696.

Green, A., McCormick, T.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2020).
Consistency for the tree bootstrap in respondent driven sampling.
*Biometrika*, 107:497-504.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2020).
Accounting for Uncertainty About Past Values In Probabilistic Projections
of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 14:661-705.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2020).
Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both sexes jointly in 69 countries.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 14:381-408.

Mulder, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
BIC extensions for order-constrained model selection.
*Sociological Methods and Research*, Article Number: 0049124119882459.

Maire, F., Friel, N., Mira, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
Adaptive incremental mixture Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics* 28:790-805.
Preprint..

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
Estimation of emigration, return migration, and
transit migration between all pairs of countries.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 116:116--122.

Liang, X., Young, W.C., Hung, L.H., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y (2019).
Integration of Multiple Data Sources for Gene Network Inference Using Genetic Perturbation Data.
*Journal of Computational Biology* 26:1113--1129.

Young, W.C., Yeung, K.Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
Identifying dynamical time series model parameters from equilibrium samples,
with application to gene regulatory networks.
*Statistical Modelling* 19:444--465.

Hernandez, B., Raftery, A.E., Pennington, S.R. and Parnell, A.C. (2018).
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees using Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Statistics and Computing* 28:869--890.
Preprint.

Scrucca, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2018).
clustvarsel: A package implementing variable
selection for model-based clustering in R.
*Journal of Statistical Software* 84(1):1--28.

Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E. and Gerland, P. (2018).
Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates.
*Demographic Research* 38:1843--1884.

Sharrow, D.J., Godwin, J., He, Y., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2018).
Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries
with Generalized HIV/AIDS Epidemics.
*Population Studies* 72:1--15.
Preprint.

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2017).
Model-based clustering with data correction for removing artifacts
in gene expression data..
*Annals of Applied Statistics* 11:1998--2026. (Open access).

Godwin, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2017).
Bayesian Projection of Life Expectancy Accounting for the HIV/AIDS Epidemic.
*Demographic Research* 37:1549--1610.

Director, H.M., Raftery, A.E. and Bitz, C.M. (2017).
Improved Sea Ice Forecasting Through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction.
*Journal of Climate* 30:9493--9510.

Hung, L.H., Shi, K., Wu, M., Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2017).
fastBMA: Scalable Network Inference and Transitive Reduction.
*Gigascience* 6:issue 10.
PubMed.

Rastelli, R., Friel, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Properties of latent variable network models.
*Network Science* 4:407--432.
Preprint.

Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.
*Statistical Analysis and Data Mining* 9:397-410.
Preprint.

Scrucca, L., Fop, M., Murphy, T.B. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
mclust 5: Clustering, classification and density estimation using
Gaussian finite mixture models.
*R Journal* 8:289-317.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
bayesPop: Probabilistic population projections.
*Journal of Statistical Software* 75(5):1-29.

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2016).
A posterior probability approach for gene regulatory
network inference in genetic perturbation data.
*Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering*, 13:1241-1251.
Preprint.

Azose, J. J., Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 113:6460-6465.

Friel, N., Wyse, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Interlocking directorates in Irish companies using bipartite
networks: a latent space approach.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, 113: 6629-6634.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2016).
Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less
developed and developed countries.
*Population Studies* 70:21-37.

Onorante, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces.
*European Economic Review* 81:2-14.

Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Kantorova, V., Gerland, P.
and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population
Projections.
Chapter 15 in *Dynamic Demographic Analysis*
(R. Schoen, ed.), pages 285-310, Springer, New York.
Preprint.

Maltiel, R., Raftery, A.E., McCormick, T.H. and Baraff, A. (2015).
Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 9:1247-1277.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2015).
Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration Rates.
*Demography* 52:1627-1650.

Scrucca, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2015).
Improved initialisation of model-based clustering using a Gaussian
hierarchical partition.
*Advances in Data Analysis and Classification* 9:447-460.

Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (2015).
Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh
Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.
*Statistics and Its Interface*, 8:125-136.
Preprint.

Alkema, L., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. and Wilmoth, J.R. (2015).
The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections:
An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty.
*Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting* 37:19-24.

Bijak, J., Alberts, I., Alho, J., Bryant, J., Buettner, T., Falkingham, J.,
Forster, J.J., Gerland, P., King, T., Onorante, L., Keilman, N., O'Hagan, A.,
Owens, D., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and
Smith, P.W.F. (2015).
Uncertain Population Forecasting: A Case for Practical Uses.
*Journal of Official Statistics* 31:537-544.

Fronczuk, M., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2015).
CyNetworkBMA: a Cytoscape app for inferring gene regulatory networks.
*Source Code for Biology and Medicine* 10:article 11.

Raftery, A.E. (2015).
Paul Deheuvels: Mentor, Advocate for Statistics, and Applied Statistician. In
*Mathematical Statistics and Limit Theorems:
Festschrift for Paul Deheuvels*, edited by D.M. Mason,
M. Hallin, D. Pfeifer and J. Steinebach, Springer, New York, pp. 1-6.

Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L. and Gerland, P. (2014).
Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations.
*Statistical Science*, 29:58-68.

Sharrow, D.J., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV
Epidemics. *PLoS One*, 9:article e96447.

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2014).
Fast Bayesian Inference for Gene Regulatory Networks Using ScanBMA.
*BMC Systems Biology*, 8:article 47.

Celeux, G., Martin-Magniette, M.-L., Maugis-Rabusseau, C. and
Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Comparing Model Selection and Regularization
Approaches to Variable Selection in Model-Based Clustering.
*Journal de la Société Française de Statistique*,
155(2):57-71.

Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N. and Gerland, P. (2014).
Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy.
*Demographic Research*, 30:795--822.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling
Between-Country Correlations.
*Demographic Research* 30:1011--1034.

Lenkoski, A., Eicher, T.S. and Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models.
*Econometric Reviews*, 33:122-151.
Preprint.

Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and
Ševčíková , H. (2013).
Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries.
*Demography*, 50:777-801.

Sloughter, J.M., Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2013)
Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting using Ensembles and
Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 141:2107-2119.

Raftery, A.E., Niu, X., Hoff, P.D. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012).
Fast Inference for the
Latent Space Network Model Using a Case-Control Approximate Likelihood.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 21:909-919.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2012).
Estimating the Correlation in
Bivariate Normal Data with Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes.
*The American Statistician*, 66:34-41.

Lo, K., Raftery, A.E., Dombek, K., Zhu, J., Schadt, E.E.,
Bumgarner, R.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012).
Integrating External Biological Knowledge in the Construction of Regulatory
Networks from Time-series Expression Data.
*BMC Systems Biology* 6: article 101.

Bao, L., Salomon, J.A., Brown, T., Raftery, A.E. and Hogan, D. (2012).
Modeling HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and
Projection Package 2011.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 88:i3-i10.

McCormick, T.M., Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Burd, R.S. (2012).
Dynamic Logistic Regression and Dynamic Model Averaging
for Binary Classification.
*Biometrics* 68:23-30.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2012).
Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources
and Assessing its Uncertainty.
*Demographic Research* 26:331-362.

Yeung, K.Y., Gooley, T.A., Zhang, A., Raftery, A.E., Radich, J.P. and
Oehler, V.G. (2012).
Predicting relapse prior to transplantation in chronic myeloid
leukemia by integrating expert knowledge and expression data.
*Bioinformatics* 28:823-830.

Ševčíková , H., Alkema, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2011).
bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic
Projections of the Total Fertility Rate.
*Journal of Statistical Software* 43:1-29.

Kleiber, W., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2011).
Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic
quantitative precipitation forecasting.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association* 106:1291-1303.

Kleiber, W., Raftery, A.E., Baars, J., Gneiting, T., Mass, C.F.
and Grimit, E.P. (2011).
Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Temperature Forecasting Using
Geostatistical Model Averaging and Local Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review* 139:2630-2649.

Chmielecki, R.M. and A.E. Raftery (2011).
Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review* 139:1626--1636.

Yeung, K.Y., Dombek, K.M., Lo, K., Mittler, J.E., Zhu, J., Schadt, E.E.,
Bumgarner, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (2011).
Construction of regulatory networks using expression time-series data
of a genotyped population.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 108:19436-19441.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Sloughter, M.
and Berrocal, V.J. (2011).
Probabilistic Weather Forecasting in R.
*R Journal*, 3:55-63.

Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E., and Waddell, P.A. (2011).
Assessing Uncertainty About the Benefits of Transportation
Infrastructure Projects Using Bayesian Melding:
Application to Seattle's Alaskan Way Viaduct.
*Transportation Research Part A - Methodological* 45:540-553.

Raftery, A.E., Karny, M., and Ettler, P. (2010).
Online Prediction Under Model Uncertainty Via
Dynamic Model Averaging: Application to a Cold Rolling Mill.
*Technometrics* 52:52-66.

Berrocal, V.J., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2010).
Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association* 105:522-537.

Brown, T., L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley,
J. Stover, and P. Gerland (2010).
Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era:
the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 86:i3--i10.

Bao, L. and A.E. Raftery (2010).
A stochastic infection rate model for estimating and projecting national
HIV prevalence rates.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 86:i93--i99.

Steele, R.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Performance of Bayesian Model Selection Criteria for Gaussian Mixture Models.
In *Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis*
(edited by M.-H. Chen et al), pages 113-130, New York: Springer.
Preprint.

Eicher, T., Papageorgiou, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Determining Growth Determinants: Default Priors and
Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Journal of Applied Econometrics* 26:30-55.

Baudry, J.-P., Raftery, A.E., Celeux, G., Lo, K. and Gottardo, R. (2010).
Combining Mixture Components for Clustering.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics* 19:332-353.

Bao, L., Gneiting, T., Grimit, E.P., Guttorp, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Bias correction and Bayesian Model
Averaging for ensemble forecasts of surface wind direction.
*Monthly Weather Review* 138:1811-1821.

Sloughter, J.M., Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using
Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association* 105:25-35.

Murphy, T.B., Dean. N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Variable Selection and Updating In Model-Based Discriminant Analysis
for High Dimensional Data with Food Authenticity Applications.
*Annals of Applied Statistics* 4:396-421.

Dean, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Latent Class Analysis Variable Selection.
*Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics* 62:11-35.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2010).
Calibrating Multi-Model Forecast Ensembles with Exchangeable and Missing
Members using Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review* 138:190-202.

Steele, R.J., Wang, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Inference from multiple imputation for missing data
using mixtures of normals.
*Statistical Methodology* 7:351-365.

Gottardo, R. and Raftery, A.E. (2009).
Markov chain Monte Carlo with mixtures of singular distributions.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics* 17:949-975.

Krivitsky, P., Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Hoff, P. (2009).
Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in
Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Ects Models.
*Social Networks* 31:204-213.

Mass, C.F., Joslyn, S., Pyle, J., Tewson, P., Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E.,
Baars, J., Sloughter, J.M., Jones, D. and Fraley, C. (2009).
PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts.
*Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society* 90:1009-1014.

Oehler, V.G., Yeung, K.Y., Choi, Y.E., Bumgarner, R.E.,
Raftery, A.E. and Radich, J.P. (2009).
The derivation of diagnostic markers of chronic myeloid leukemia
progression from microarray data.
*Blood* 114:3292-3298.

Annest, A., Bumgarner, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2009).
Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging: a method for the application of
survival analysis to high-dimensional microarray data.
*BMC Bioinformatics* 10, article 72.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Brown, T. (2008).
Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in
national HIV prevalence estimates.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 84:i11-i16.

Brown, T., Salomon, J.A., Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Gouws, E. (2008).
Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics:
The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 84:i5-i10.

Chu, V.T., Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Bumgarner, R.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2008).
MeV+R: using MeV as a graphical user interface for Bioconductor applications
in microarray analysis. *Genome Biology* 7: article R118.

Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Raftery, A.E. (2007).
Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B*, 69, 243-268.

Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2007).
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 102, 359-378.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Clark, S.J. (2007).
Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence
using Bayesian melding.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 1, 229-248.

Oh, M.-S. and Raftery, A.E. (2007).
Model-based Clustering with Dissimilarities: A Bayesian Approach.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 16, 559-585.

Berrocal, V., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2007).
Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in
Probabilistic Weather Forecasts.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 135, 1386-1402.

Wilson, L.J., Beauregard, S., Raftery, A.E. and Verret, R. (2007).
Calibrated Surface Temperature Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction y
stem Using Bayesian Model Averaging (with Discussion).
*Monthly Weather Review*, 135, 1364-1385. Discussion pages 4226-4236.

Sloughter, J.M., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2007).
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation
Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 135, 3209-3220.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2007).
Bayesian Regularization for Normal
Mixture Estimation and Model-Based Clustering.
*Journal of Classification*, 24, 155-181.

Raftery, A.E., Newton, M.A., Satagopan, J.M. and Krivitsky, P. (2007).
Estimating the Integrated Likelihood via Posterior Simulation
Using the Harmonic Mean Identity (with Discussion).
In *Bayesian Statistics 8* (edited by J.M. Bernardo et al.),
pp. 1-45, Oxford University Press.

Sevcikova, H., Raftery, A.E. and Waddell, P. (2007).
Assessing Uncertainty in Urban
Simulations Using Bayesian Melding.
*Transportation Research B*, 41, 652-669.

Fraley C. and Raftery A.E. (2007).
Model-based
methods of classification: Using the mclust software in chemometrics.
*Journal of Statistical Software*, 18, paper i06.

Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Bumgarner, R.E. (2006).
Robust Estimation of cDNA Microarray Intensities with Replicates.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 101, 30-40.

Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Bumgarner, R.E. (2006).
Bayesian Robust Inference for Differential Gene Expression in cDNA
Microarrays with Multiple Samples.
*Biometrics*, 62, 10-18.

Steele, R., Raftery, A.E. and Emond, M. (2006).
Computing Normalizing Constants for Finite Mixture Models
via Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling (IMIS).
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 15, 712-734.

Forbes, F., Peyrard, N., Fraley, C., Georgian-Smith, D.,
Goldhaber, D.M., and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
Model-Based Region-of-Interest
Selection in Dynamic Breast MRI.
*Journal of Computer Assisted Tomography*, 30, 675-687.

Tewson, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
Real-Time Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Website.
*Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*, 7, 880-882.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
Some applications of model-based clustering in chemistry.
*R News*, 6, no. 3, 17-23.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
Model-based microarray image analysis.
*R News*, 6, no. 5, 60-63.

Czado, C.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
``Choosing the Link function and Accounting for Link Uncertainty in
Generalized Linear Models using Bayes Factors.''
*Statistical Papers*, 47, 419-442.
Earlier technical report.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E. and Wehrens, R. (2005).
Incremental Model-Based Clustering for Large Datasets with Small Clusters.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 14, 529-546.

Raftery, A.E., Painter, I. and Volinsky, C.T. (2005).
BMA: An R package for Bayesian Model Averaging.
*R News*, volume 5, number 2, 2-8.

Murtagh, F., Raftery, A.E., and J.L. Starck (2005).
Bayesian inference for multiband image segmentation via model-based cluster
trees.
*Image and Vision Computing*, 23, 587-596.

Dean, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
``Normal uniform mixture differential gene expression detection for
cDNA microarrays.''
*BMC Bioinformatics*, 6, 173. (doi:10.1186/1471-2105-6-173).

Li, Q., Fraley, C., Bumgarner, R.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
``Donuts, Scratches and Blanks: Robust Model-Based Segmentation
of Microarray Images.''
*Bioinformatics*, 21(12), 2875-2882
(doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/bti447).

Yeung, K.Y., Bumgarner, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
`` Bayesian Model Averaging: Development of an improved multi-class,
gene selection and classification tool for microarray data.''
*Bioinformatics*, 21(10), 2394-2402 (doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/bti319).

Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M. (2005).
Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 133, 1155-1174.

Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E., Westveld, A. and Goldman, T. (2005).
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output
Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 133, 1098-1118.

Fuentes, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
Model evaluation and spatial interpolation by Bayesian
combination of observations with outputs from numerical models.
*Biometrics*, 66, 36--45.

Walsh, D.C.I. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
Classification of mixtures of spatial point processes
via partial Bayes factors.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 14, 139-154.

Earlier technical report version with color figures.

Wehrens, R., Buydens, L.M.C., Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2004).
Model-Based Clustering for Image Segmentation and Large Datasets Via Sampling.
*Journal of Classification*, 21, 231-253.

Bates, S., Raftery, A.E. and Cullen, A.C. (2003).
Bayesian Uncertainty Assessment in Deterministic
Models for Environmental Risk Assessment. *Environmetrics*,
14, 355-371.

Raftery, A.E. and Zheng, Y. (2003).
Discussion: Performance of Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 98, 931-938.

Wang, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Nearest Neighbor Variance Estimation (NNVE):
Robust Covariance Estimation via Nearest Neighbor Cleaning
(with Discussion).
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 97, 994-1019.

Stanford, D.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Approximate Bayes factors for image segmentation:
The Pseudolikelihood Information Criterion (PLIC).
*IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence*, 24, 1517-1520.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Bayesian Estimation and Segmentation of Spatial Point Processes using Voronoi Tilings.
In *Spatial Cluster Modelling* (A.G. Lawson and D. G.T. Denison, eds.),
London: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.
Earlier technical report version. (Postscript).

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Model-Based Clustering,
Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 97, 611-631.

Berchtold, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
The Mixture Transition Distribution
(MTD) model for high-order Markov chains and non-Gaussian time series.
*Statistical Science*, 17, 328-356.

Walsh, D.C.I and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Detecting mines in minefields with
linear characteristics. *Technometrics*, 44, 34-44.

Walsh, D.C.I. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Accurate and Efficient Curve Detection
in Images: The Importance Sampling Hough Transform.
*Pattern Recognition*, 35, 1421-1431.

Hoeting, J.A., Raftery, A.E. and Madigan, D. (2002).
Bayesian variable and transformation selection in linear regression.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 11, 485-507.

Yeung K.Y., Fraley C., Murua A, Raftery, A.E. and Ruzzo, W.L. (2001).
Model-based clustering and data transformations for gene expression data.
*Bioinformatics*, 17, 977-987.

Oh, M.-S. and Raftery, A.E. (2001).
Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling and
Choice of Dimension.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 96, 1031-1044.

Viallefont, V., Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (2001).
Variable selection and Bayesian model averaging in epidemiological
case-control studies. *Statistics in Medicine*, 20, 3215-3230.

Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Vignette.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 95, 654-661.

Poole, D.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Inference for deterministic
simulation models: The Bayesian melding approach.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 95, 1244-1255.
Earlier, more complete technical report version (ps).

Stanford, D.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Principal curve clustering with noise.
*IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Analysis*, 22, 601-609.

Volinsky, C.T. and Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Bayesian information criterion
for censored survival models.
*Biometrics*, 56, 256--262.

Hoeting, J.A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E. and Volinsky, C.T. (1999).
Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial (with Discussion).
*Statistical Science*, 14, 382--401. [Corrected version.]
Correction: vol. 15, pp. 193-195. The corrected version is available
at http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/online/hoeting1999.pdf.
If cited, the corrected version should also be referenced, as here.

Raftery, A.E. (1999).
Bayes factors and BIC - Comment on
"A critique of the Bayesian information criterion for model selection".
*Sociological Methods and Research*, 27, 411-427.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
MCLUST: Software for Model-Based Cluster Analysis.
*Journal of Classification*, 16, 297-306.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
Comparing explanations of fertility
decline using event history models and unobserved heterogeneity.
*Sociological Methods and Research*, 28, 35-60.

Campbell, J.G., Fraley, C., Stanford, D., Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
Model-based methods for textile fault detection.
*International Journal of Imaging Science and Technology*, 10, 339-346.

Forbes, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
Bayesian morphology: Fast unsupervised Bayesian image analysis.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94*, 555-568.

Poole, D., Givens, G.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
A proposed stock assessment method and its application to bowhead whales,
*Balaena mysticetus*. *Fishery Bulletin*, 97, 144-152.
Earlier technical report version.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (1998).
How many clusters? Which clustering
methods? Answers via model-based cluster analysis.
*Computer Journal*, 41, 578-588.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1998).
Nearest neighbor clutter removal
for estimating features in spatial point processes.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 93, 577-584.

Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1998).
Estimating bowhead whale, *Balaena mysticetus*, population size and
rate of increase from the 1993 census.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 93, 451-463.

Dasgupta, A. and Raftery, A.E. (1998).
Detecting features in spatial point processes with clutter via model-based
clustering.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 93, 294-302.

Campbell, J.G., Fraley, C., Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1997).
Linear flaw detection in woven textiles using model-based clustering.
*Pattern Recognition Letters*, 18, 1539-1548.

Petrone, S. and Raftery, A.E. (1997).
A note on the Dirichlet process prior in Bayesian nonparametric inference
with partial exchangeability.
*Statistics and Probability Letters, 36*, 69-83.

Volinsky, C.T., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E. and Kronmal, R.A. (1997).
Bayesian model averaging in proportional hazard models: Assessing stroke risk.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C---Applied Statistics,
46*, 433-448.

DiCiccio, T.J., Kass, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Wasserman, L. (1997).
Computing Bayes Factors by Combining Simulation and Asymptotic Approximations.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92*, 903-915.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1997)
Estimating Bayes factors via posterior
simulation with the Laplace-Metropolis estimator.
*Journal of the American Statistical Assocation, 92*, 648-655.

Bensmail, H., Celeux, G., Raftery, A.E. and Robert, C. (1997).
Inference in model-based cluster analysis.
*Statistics and Computing, 7, *1-10.

Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Hoeting, J.A. (1997).
Bayesian model averaging for regression models.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, *179-191.

Hoeting, J.A., Raftery, A.E. and Madigan, D. (1996).
A method for simultaneous
variable selection and outlier identification in linear regression.
*Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 22, *251-270.

Le, N.D., Martin, R.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1996).
Modeling outliers, bursts and
flat stretches in time series using mixture transition distribution
(MTD) models.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, *1504-1515.

Givens, G.H., Zeh, J.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Implementing the current management regime for aboriginal subsistence whaling to establish a catch limit for the Bering--Chukchi--Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 46, 493--501.

Raftery, A.E. (1996).
Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in
generalized linear models.
*Biometrika, 83, *251-266.

Givens, G.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1996).
Local adaptive importance sampling for
multivariate densities with strong nonlinear relationships.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, *132-141.

Le, N.D., Raftery, A.E. and Martin, R.D. (1996).
Robust order selection in autoregressive models using robust Bayes factors.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, *123-131.

Kahn, M.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1996).
Discharge rates of Medicare stroke
patients to skilled nursing facilities: Bayesian logistic regression with
unobserved heterogeneity.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, *29-41.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M., Aghajanian, A. and Kahn, M.J. (1996).
Event history analysis of World Fertility Survey data.
*Mathematical Population Studies, 6, *129-153.
Earlier technical report version (ps).

Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (1996).
Model selection for generalized
linear models via GLIB, with application to epidemiology.
In *Bayesian Biostatistics *(D.A. Berry and D.K. Stangl, eds.),
New York: Marcel Dekker, pp. 321--354.
Preprint (ps).

Raftery, A.E. and Lewis, S.M. (1996). Implementing MCMC.
In *Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice*(W.R. Gilks, D.J. Spiegelhalter
and S. Richardson, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall, pp. 115-130.
Preprint (ps).

Raftery, A.E. (1996). Hypothesis testing and model selection.
In *Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice*(W.R. Gilks, D.J. Spiegelhalter
and S. Richardson, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall, pp. 163--188.
Preprint (ps).

Givens, G.H., Zeh, J.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1995).
Assessment of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales
using the BALEEN II model in a Bayesian synthesis framework.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 45, *345-364.

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1995).
Response to comments by Butterworth and Punt in SC/46/AS2 on the
Bayesian synthesis approach.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 45, *325-330.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M. and Aghajanian, A. (1995).
Demand or ideation? Evidence from the Iranian marital fertility decline.
*Demography, 32, *159-182.

Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Volinsky, C.T. (1995).
Accounting for model uncertainty in survival analysis improves predictive
performance (with Discussion). In *Bayesian Statistics 5
*(J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid and A.F.M. Smith, eds.),
Oxford University Press, pp. 323-349.
Preprint (ps).

Raftery, A.E. (1995).
Bayesian model selection in social research
(with Discussion). *Sociological Methodology*, 25, 111-196.

Discussion: Avoiding model selection
in Bayesian social research, by A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin.

Discussion: Better rules for better
decisions, by R. M. Hauser.

Rejoinder: Model selection is
unavoidable in social research, by A. E. Raftery.

Kass, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1995).
Bayes factors.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, *773-795.

Raftery, A.E., Givens, G.H. and Zeh, J.E. (1995).
Inference from a
deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales (with Discussion).
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, *402-430.
Rejoinder.
[The 1995 JASA-Applications and Case Studies Invited Paper.]

Madigan, D.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1994).
Model selection and accounting for
model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam's Window.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association,
89, *1335-1346.

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1994).
A reweighting approach
for sensitivity analysis within the Bayesian synthesis framework for
population assessment modeling. *Report of the International Whaling
Commission, 44, *377-384.

Taplin, R.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1994).
Analysis of agricultural
field trials in the presence of outliers and fertility jumps.
*Biometrics, 50, *764-781.

Raftery, A.E. and Tavare, S. (1994).
Estimation and modelling repeated patterns in high-order Markov chains
with the mixture transition distribution (MTD) model.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C -
Applied Statistics, 43, *179-200.

Newton, M.A. and Raftery, A.E. (1994).
Approximate Bayesian
inference by the weighted likelihood bootstrap (with Discussion).
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 56, *3-48.

Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E., York, J.C., Bradshaw, J.M., and
Almond, R.G. (1993). Strategies for graphical model selection.
*Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on
Artificial Intelligence and Statistics*, pp. 361-366.
Preprint (ps).

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1993).
Benefits of a Bayesian approach for synthesizing multiple sources of
evidence and uncertainty linked by a deterministic model.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 43, *495-500.

Raftery, A.E. and Schweder, T. (1993).
Inference about the ratio of
two parameters, with application to whale censusing.
*The American Statistician, 47, *259-264.

Raftery, A.E. (1993).
Bayesian model selection in structural equation models.
In *Testing Stuctural Equation Models *(K.A. Bollen and J.S. Long, eds.),
Beverly Hills: Sage, pp. 163-180.
Preprint.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M (1993).
Maximally maintained inequality: Expansion, reform and opportunity
in Irish education, 1921-1975.
*Sociology of Education, 66, *41-62.

Grunwald, G.K., Guttorp, P. and Raftery, A.E. (1993).
Prediction rules for exponential family state-space models.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 55, *937-943.

Banfield, J.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1993).
Model-based Gaussian and non-Gaussian clustering.
*Biometrics, 49, *803-821.

Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1993).
Estimation of Bowhead Whale,
*Balaena mysticetus, *population size (with Discussion).
In *Bayesian Statistics in Science and Technology: Case Studies
*(C. Gatsonis et al., eds.), New York: Springer-Verlag, pp. 163-240.

Grunwald, G.K., Raftery, A.E. and Guttorp, P. (1993).
Time series of continuous proportions.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B,
55, *103-116.

Hout, M., Raftery, A.E. and Bell, E.O. (1993).
Making the grade: Educational
stratification in the United States, 1925-1989.
In *Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in
Thirteen Countries, *(Y. Shavit and P. Bloesfeld, eds.),
Boulder: Westview Press, pp. 25-50.

Banfield, J.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1992).
Ice floe identification in
satellite images using mathematical morphology and clustering about
principal curves. *Journal of the American Statistical Association,
8*, 7-16.

Zeh, J.E., Raftery, A.E. and Yang, Q. (1990).
Assessment of tracking algorithm performance and its effect on population
estimates using bowhead whales, *Balaena mysticetus, *identified
visually and acoustically in 1986 off Point Barrow, Alaska.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 40, *411-421.

Raftery, A.E., Zeh, J.E., Yang, Q. and Styer, P.E. (1990).
Bayes empirical Bayes interval estimation of bowhead whale,
*Balaena mysticetus, *population size based upon the 1986 combined
visual and acoustic census off Point Barrow, Alaska.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 40, *393-409.

Stephen, E., Raftery, A.E. and Dowding, P. (1990).
Forecasting spore concentrations: A time series approach.
*International Journal of Biometeorology, 34, *87-89.

Raftery, A.E. and Thompson, E.A. (1990).
What is the probability of a serious nuclear reactor accident?
*Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 36, *31-34.

O'Cinneide, C.A. and Raftery, A.E. (1989).
A continuous multivariate exponential distribution that is multivariate
phase type.
*Statistics and Probability Letters, 7, *323-325.

Haslett, J. and Raftery, A.E. (1989).
Space-time modelling with long-memory dependence: Assessing Ireland's
wind power resource (with Discussion).
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics,
38, *1-50.

Raftery, A.E., Turet, P. and Zeh, J.E. (1988).
A parametric empirical Bayes approach to interval estimation of bowhead whales,
*Balaena mysticetus,
*population size.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 38, *377-388.

Raftery, A.E. and Thompson, E.A. (1988).
How many nuclear reactor accidents?
*Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 29, *347-350.

Raftery, A.E. (1988).
Inference and prediction for the binomial N parameter: A hierarchical
Bayes approach.
*Biometrika, 75, *223-228.

Raftery, A.E. (1988).
Analysis of a simple debugging model.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics,
37, *12-22.

Martin, R.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1987).
Robustness, computation, and non-Euclidean models.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, *1044-1050.

Raftery, A.E. (1986).
A note on Bayes factors for log-linear contingency table models
with vague prior information.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 48, *249-250.

Akman, V.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1986).
Asymptotic inference for a change-point Poisson process.
*Annals of Statistics, 14, *1583-1590.

Raftery, A.E. and Akman, V.E. (1986).
Bayesian analysis of a Poisson process with a change-point.
*Biometrika, 73, *85-89.

Raftery, A.E. (1986).
Choosing models for cross-classifications.
*American Sociological Review, 51, *145-146.

Raftery, A.E. (1985).
Some properties of a new continuous bivariate exponential distribution.
*Statistics and Decisions,
*Supplement Issue No. 2, 53-58.

Raftery, A.E. (1985).
Invited review: Time series analysis.
*European Journal of Operational Research, 20, *127-137.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M. (1985).
Does Irish education approach the meritocratic ideal? A logistic
analysis.
*Economic and Social Review, 16, *115-140.

Raftery, A.E. (1985).
Social mobility measures for cross-national comparisons.
*Quality and Quantity, 19, *167-182.

Raftery, A.E. (1984).
A continuous multivariate exponential distribution.
*Communications in Statistics, A13, *947-965.

Raftery, A.E. (1982).
Generalised non-normal time series models. In
*Time Series Analysis: Theory and Practice 1
*(O.D. Anderson, ed.), North-Holland, pp. 621-640.

Fuchs, C., Broniatowski, M. and Raftery, A.E. (1981).
Étude de la division cellulaire dans le meristème plan de la feuille
de Tropaeolum peregrinum L. II. Structures presentées par la distribution
des mitoses.
*Comptes rendus de l'Académie des Sciences de Paris, série III,
292, *385-387.

Raftery, A.E., Shier, P. and Obilade, T. (1980).
Domestic space heating and solar energy in Ireland.
*International Journal of Energy Research, 4, *31-39.

Updated May 9, 2023.

These papers are being made available here to facilitate the timely dissemination of scholarly work; copyright and all related rights are retained by the copyright holders.

Copyright 2005-2023 by Adrian E. Raftery; all rights reserved.