Adrian E. Raftery: Publications

To appear

Yu, C., ,Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E., and Curran, S. Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections. Demography, in press.

Porwal, A. and Raftery, A.E. Effect of model space priors on statistical inference with model uncertainty. New England Journal of Statistics and Data Science, in press.

2023

Raftery, A.E. and Ševčíková , H. (2023). Probabilistic Population Forecasting: Short to Very Long Term. International Journal of Forecasting 39: 73--97.

Gormley, I.C., Murphy, T.B. and Raftery, A.E. (2023). Model-Based Clustering. Annual Review of Statistics and its Applications 10: 573--595.

2022

Zeppetello, Z.V., Raftery, A.E. and Battisti, D.S. (2022). A Dangerous Future: Probabilistic Projections of Increased Heat Stress Driven By Global Climate Change. Communications Earth and Environment 3: article 183.

• Extreme Heat Will Change Us. (New York Times interactive feature.)

Chen, X., Raftery, A.E., Battisti, D.S. and Liu, P.R. (2022). Long-Term Probabilistic Temperature Projections for All Locations. Climate Dynamics 60: 2303--2314.

Director, H.M. and Raftery, A.E. (2022). Contour Models for Physical Boundaries Enclosing Star-Shaped and Approximately Star-Shaped Polygons. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C-Applied Statistics 71: 1688--1720. Preprint.

Rennert, K., Prest, B.C., Pizer, W.A., Newell, R.G., Anthoff, D., Kington, C., Rennels, L., Cooke, R., Raftery, A.E., ,Ševčíková , H. and Errickson, F. (2022). The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2021: 223--305.

Welch, N.G. and Raftery, A.E. (2022). Probabilistic Forecasts of International Bilateral Migration Flows. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (35): e2203822119.

Porwal, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2022). Comparing methods for statistical inference with model uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119:2120737119.

Jiang, B., Raftery, A.E., Steele, R.J. and Wang, N. (2022). Balancing Inferential Integrity and Disclosure Risk via Model Targeted Masking and Multiple Imputation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 117:52-66.

2021

• Pearce, M., Raftery, A.E. (2021). Will this be a record-breaking century for human longevity? Significance 18:6-7.
• Pearce, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). The maximum human life span will likely increase this century, but not by more than a decade. The Conversation, August 10, 2021.

Gao, P.A., Director, H.M., Bitz, C.M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Probabilistic Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-021-00480-0

Irons, N.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Infections from Deaths, Confirmed Cases, Tests, and Random Surveys. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118:e2103272118.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy. Journal of Official Statistics, 37:591-610.

Director, H., Raftery, A.E. and Bitz, C. (2021). Probabilistic forecasting of the Arctic sea ice edge with contour modeling. Annals of Applied Statistics, 15:711-726. (Preprint.)

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Country-based emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 C target. Communications Earth and Environment 2:Article 29. UW News article. Washington Post article. Spring Nature Sustainability Community post.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy. Annals of Applied Statistics 15:437--459.

Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and Silverman, B.W. (2021). The vote Package: Single Transferable Vote and Other Electoral Systems in R. R Journal, 13: 673-696.

2020

Green, A., McCormick, T.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). Consistency for the tree bootstrap in respondent driven sampling. Biometrika, 107:497-504.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). Accounting for Uncertainty About Past Values In Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Annals of Applied Statistics, 14:661-705.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both sexes jointly in 69 countries. Annals of Applied Statistics, 14:381-408.

2019

Mulder, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019). BIC extensions for order-constrained model selection. Sociological Methods and Research, Article Number: 0049124119882459.

Maire, F., Friel, N., Mira, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2019). Adaptive incremental mixture Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 28:790-805. Preprint..

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019). Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116:116--122.

Liang, X., Young, W.C., Hung, L.H., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y (2019). Integration of Multiple Data Sources for Gene Network Inference Using Genetic Perturbation Data. Journal of Computational Biology 26:1113--1129.

Young, W.C., Yeung, K.Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2019). Identifying dynamical time series model parameters from equilibrium samples, with application to gene regulatory networks. Statistical Modelling 19:444--465.

2018

Hernandez, B., Raftery, A.E., Pennington, S.R. and Parnell, A.C. (2018). Bayesian Additive Regression Trees using Bayesian Model Averaging. Statistics and Computing 28:869--890. Preprint.

Scrucca, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2018). clustvarsel: A package implementing variable selection for model-based clustering in R. Journal of Statistical Software 84(1):1--28.

Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E. and Gerland, P. (2018). Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates. Demographic Research 38:1843--1884.

Sharrow, D.J., Godwin, J., He, Y., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2018). Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries with Generalized HIV/AIDS Epidemics. Population Studies 72:1--15. Preprint.

2017

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2017). Model-based clustering with data correction for removing artifacts in gene expression data.. Annals of Applied Statistics 11:1998--2026. (Open access).

Godwin, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2017). Bayesian Projection of Life Expectancy Accounting for the HIV/AIDS Epidemic. Demographic Research 37:1549--1610.

Director, H.M., Raftery, A.E. and Bitz, C.M. (2017). Improved Sea Ice Forecasting Through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction. Journal of Climate 30:9493--9510.

Hung, L.H., Shi, K., Wu, M., Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2017). fastBMA: Scalable Network Inference and Transitive Reduction. Gigascience 6:issue 10. PubMed.

2016

Rastelli, R., Friel, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Properties of latent variable network models. Network Science 4:407--432. Preprint.

Raftery, A.E. (2016). Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 9:397-410. Preprint.

Scrucca, L., Fop, M., Murphy, T.B. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). mclust 5: Clustering, classification and density estimation using Gaussian finite mixture models. R Journal 8:289-317.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). bayesPop: Probabilistic population projections. Journal of Statistical Software 75(5):1-29.

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2016). A posterior probability approach for gene regulatory network inference in genetic perturbation data. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 13:1241-1251. Preprint.

Azose, J. J., Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:6460-6465.

Friel, N., Wyse, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Interlocking directorates in Irish companies using bipartite networks: a latent space approach. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113: 6629-6634.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2016). Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and developed countries. Population Studies 70:21-37.

Onorante, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces. European Economic Review 81:2-14.

Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Kantorova, V., Gerland, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections. Chapter 15 in Dynamic Demographic Analysis (R. Schoen, ed.), pages 285-310, Springer, New York. Preprint.

2015

Maltiel, R., Raftery, A.E., McCormick, T.H. and Baraff, A. (2015). Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9:1247-1277.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2015). Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration Rates. Demography 52:1627-1650.

Scrucca, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2015). Improved initialisation of model-based clustering using a Gaussian hierarchical partition. Advances in Data Analysis and Classification 9:447-460.

Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (2015). Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. Statistics and Its Interface, 8:125-136. Preprint.

Alkema, L., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. and Wilmoth, J.R. (2015). The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 37:19-24.

Bijak, J., Alberts, I., Alho, J., Bryant, J., Buettner, T., Falkingham, J., Forster, J.J., Gerland, P., King, T., Onorante, L., Keilman, N., O'Hagan, A., Owens, D., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and Smith, P.W.F. (2015). Uncertain Population Forecasting: A Case for Practical Uses. Journal of Official Statistics 31:537-544.

Fronczuk, M., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2015). CyNetworkBMA: a Cytoscape app for inferring gene regulatory networks. Source Code for Biology and Medicine 10:article 11.

Raftery, A.E. (2015). Paul Deheuvels: Mentor, Advocate for Statistics, and Applied Statistician. In Mathematical Statistics and Limit Theorems: Festschrift for Paul Deheuvels, edited by D.M. Mason, M. Hallin, D. Pfeifer and J. Steinebach, Springer, New York, pp. 1-6.

2014

Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L. and Gerland, P. (2014). Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations. Statistical Science, 29:58-68.

Sharrow, D.J., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics. PLoS One, 9:article e96447.

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2014). Fast Bayesian Inference for Gene Regulatory Networks Using ScanBMA. BMC Systems Biology, 8:article 47.

Celeux, G., Martin-Magniette, M.-L., Maugis-Rabusseau, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Comparing Model Selection and Regularization Approaches to Variable Selection in Model-Based Clustering. Journal de la Société Française de Statistique, 155(2):57-71.

Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N. and Gerland, P. (2014). Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy. Demographic Research, 30:795--822.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations. Demographic Research 30:1011--1034.

Lenkoski, A., Eicher, T.S. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models. Econometric Reviews, 33:122-151. Preprint.

2013

Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and Ševčíková , H. (2013). Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. Demography, 50:777-801.

Sloughter, J.M., Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2013) Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review, 141:2107-2119.

2012

Raftery, A.E., Niu, X., Hoff, P.D. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012). Fast Inference for the Latent Space Network Model Using a Case-Control Approximate Likelihood. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 21:909-919.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2012). Estimating the Correlation in Bivariate Normal Data with Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes. The American Statistician, 66:34-41.

Lo, K., Raftery, A.E., Dombek, K., Zhu, J., Schadt, E.E., Bumgarner, R.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012). Integrating External Biological Knowledge in the Construction of Regulatory Networks from Time-series Expression Data. BMC Systems Biology 6: article 101.

Bao, L., Salomon, J.A., Brown, T., Raftery, A.E. and Hogan, D. (2012). Modeling HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2011. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88:i3-i10.

McCormick, T.M., Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Burd, R.S. (2012). Dynamic Logistic Regression and Dynamic Model Averaging for Binary Classification. Biometrics 68:23-30.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2012). Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty. Demographic Research 26:331-362.

Yeung, K.Y., Gooley, T.A., Zhang, A., Raftery, A.E., Radich, J.P. and Oehler, V.G. (2012). Predicting relapse prior to transplantation in chronic myeloid leukemia by integrating expert knowledge and expression data. Bioinformatics 28:823-830.

2011

Ševčíková , H., Alkema, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2011). bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate. Journal of Statistical Software 43:1-29.

Kleiber, W., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2011). Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 106:1291-1303.

Kleiber, W., Raftery, A.E., Baars, J., Gneiting, T., Mass, C.F. and Grimit, E.P. (2011). Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Temperature Forecasting Using Geostatistical Model Averaging and Local Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review 139:2630-2649.

Chmielecki, R.M. and A.E. Raftery (2011). Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review 139:1626--1636.

Yeung, K.Y., Dombek, K.M., Lo, K., Mittler, J.E., Zhu, J., Schadt, E.E., Bumgarner, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (2011). Construction of regulatory networks using expression time-series data of a genotyped population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108:19436-19441.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Sloughter, M. and Berrocal, V.J. (2011). Probabilistic Weather Forecasting in R. R Journal, 3:55-63.

Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E., and Waddell, P.A. (2011). Assessing Uncertainty About the Benefits of Transportation Infrastructure Projects Using Bayesian Melding: Application to Seattle's Alaskan Way Viaduct. Transportation Research Part A - Methodological 45:540-553.

2010

Raftery, A.E., Karny, M., and Ettler, P. (2010). Online Prediction Under Model Uncertainty Via Dynamic Model Averaging: Application to a Cold Rolling Mill. Technometrics 52:52-66.

Berrocal, V.J., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2010). Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105:522-537.

Brown, T., L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley, J. Stover, and P. Gerland (2010). Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86:i3--i10.

Bao, L. and A.E. Raftery (2010). A stochastic infection rate model for estimating and projecting national HIV prevalence rates. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86:i93--i99.

Steele, R.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Performance of Bayesian Model Selection Criteria for Gaussian Mixture Models. In Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis (edited by M.-H. Chen et al), pages 113-130, New York: Springer. Preprint.

Eicher, T., Papageorgiou, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Determining Growth Determinants: Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of Applied Econometrics 26:30-55.

Baudry, J.-P., Raftery, A.E., Celeux, G., Lo, K. and Gottardo, R. (2010). Combining Mixture Components for Clustering. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 19:332-353.

Bao, L., Gneiting, T., Grimit, E.P., Guttorp, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Bias correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for ensemble forecasts of surface wind direction. Monthly Weather Review 138:1811-1821.

Sloughter, J.M., Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105:25-35.

Murphy, T.B., Dean. N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Variable Selection and Updating In Model-Based Discriminant Analysis for High Dimensional Data with Food Authenticity Applications. Annals of Applied Statistics 4:396-421.

Dean, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Latent Class Analysis Variable Selection. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 62:11-35.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2010). Calibrating Multi-Model Forecast Ensembles with Exchangeable and Missing Members using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review 138:190-202.

Steele, R.J., Wang, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010). Inference from multiple imputation for missing data using mixtures of normals. Statistical Methodology 7:351-365.

2009

Gottardo, R. and Raftery, A.E. (2009). Markov chain Monte Carlo with mixtures of singular distributions. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 17:949-975.

Krivitsky, P., Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Hoff, P. (2009). Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Ects Models. Social Networks 31:204-213.

Mass, C.F., Joslyn, S., Pyle, J., Tewson, P., Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E., Baars, J., Sloughter, J.M., Jones, D. and Fraley, C. (2009). PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90:1009-1014.

Oehler, V.G., Yeung, K.Y., Choi, Y.E., Bumgarner, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Radich, J.P. (2009). The derivation of diagnostic markers of chronic myeloid leukemia progression from microarray data. Blood 114:3292-3298.

Annest, A., Bumgarner, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2009). Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging: a method for the application of survival analysis to high-dimensional microarray data. BMC Bioinformatics 10, article 72.

2008

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Brown, T. (2008). Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84:i11-i16.

Brown, T., Salomon, J.A., Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Gouws, E. (2008). Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84:i5-i10.

Chu, V.T., Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Bumgarner, R.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2008). MeV+R: using MeV as a graphical user interface for Bioconductor applications in microarray analysis. Genome Biology 7: article R118.

2007

Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Raftery, A.E. (2007). Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 69, 243-268.

Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2007). Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102, 359-378.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Clark, S.J. (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Annals of Applied Statistics, 1, 229-248.

Oh, M.-S. and Raftery, A.E. (2007). Model-based Clustering with Dissimilarities: A Bayesian Approach. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 16, 559-585.

Berrocal, V., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2007). Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1386-1402.

Wilson, L.J., Beauregard, S., Raftery, A.E. and Verret, R. (2007). Calibrated Surface Temperature Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction y stem Using Bayesian Model Averaging (with Discussion). Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1364-1385. Discussion pages 4226-4236.

Sloughter, J.M., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2007). Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3209-3220.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2007). Bayesian Regularization for Normal Mixture Estimation and Model-Based Clustering. Journal of Classification, 24, 155-181.

Raftery, A.E., Newton, M.A., Satagopan, J.M. and Krivitsky, P. (2007). Estimating the Integrated Likelihood via Posterior Simulation Using the Harmonic Mean Identity (with Discussion). In Bayesian Statistics 8 (edited by J.M. Bernardo et al.), pp. 1-45, Oxford University Press.

Sevcikova, H., Raftery, A.E. and Waddell, P. (2007). Assessing Uncertainty in Urban Simulations Using Bayesian Melding. Transportation Research B, 41, 652-669.

Fraley C. and Raftery A.E. (2007). Model-based methods of classification: Using the mclust software in chemometrics. Journal of Statistical Software, 18, paper i06.

2006

Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Bumgarner, R.E. (2006). Robust Estimation of cDNA Microarray Intensities with Replicates. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101, 30-40.

Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Bumgarner, R.E. (2006). Bayesian Robust Inference for Differential Gene Expression in cDNA Microarrays with Multiple Samples. Biometrics, 62, 10-18.

Steele, R., Raftery, A.E. and Emond, M. (2006). Computing Normalizing Constants for Finite Mixture Models via Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling (IMIS). Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 15, 712-734.

Forbes, F., Peyrard, N., Fraley, C., Georgian-Smith, D., Goldhaber, D.M., and Raftery, A.E. (2006). Model-Based Region-of-Interest Selection in Dynamic Breast MRI. Journal of Computer Assisted Tomography, 30, 675-687.

Tewson, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2006). Real-Time Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Website. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 7, 880-882.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006). Some applications of model-based clustering in chemistry. R News, 6, no. 3, 17-23.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006). Model-based microarray image analysis. R News, 6, no. 5, 60-63.

Czado, C.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006). ``Choosing the Link function and Accounting for Link Uncertainty in Generalized Linear Models using Bayes Factors.'' Statistical Papers, 47, 419-442. Earlier technical report.

2005

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E. and Wehrens, R. (2005). Incremental Model-Based Clustering for Large Datasets with Small Clusters. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 14, 529-546.

Raftery, A.E., Painter, I. and Volinsky, C.T. (2005). BMA: An R package for Bayesian Model Averaging. R News, volume 5, number 2, 2-8.

Murtagh, F., Raftery, A.E., and J.L. Starck (2005). Bayesian inference for multiband image segmentation via model-based cluster trees. Image and Vision Computing, 23, 587-596.

Dean, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). ``Normal uniform mixture differential gene expression detection for cDNA microarrays.'' BMC Bioinformatics, 6, 173. (doi:10.1186/1471-2105-6-173).

Li, Q., Fraley, C., Bumgarner, R.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). ``Donuts, Scratches and Blanks: Robust Model-Based Segmentation of Microarray Images.'' Bioinformatics, 21(12), 2875-2882 (doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/bti447).

Yeung, K.Y., Bumgarner, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). `` Bayesian Model Averaging: Development of an improved multi-class, gene selection and classification tool for microarray data.'' Bioinformatics, 21(10), 2394-2402 (doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/bti319).

Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M. (2005). Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1155-1174.

Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E., Westveld, A. and Goldman, T. (2005). Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1098-1118.

Fuentes, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). Model evaluation and spatial interpolation by Bayesian combination of observations with outputs from numerical models. Biometrics, 66, 36--45.

Walsh, D.C.I. and Raftery, A.E. (2005). Classification of mixtures of spatial point processes via partial Bayes factors. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 14, 139-154.

2004

Wehrens, R., Buydens, L.M.C., Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2004). Model-Based Clustering for Image Segmentation and Large Datasets Via Sampling. Journal of Classification, 21, 231-253.

2003

Bates, S., Raftery, A.E. and Cullen, A.C. (2003). Bayesian Uncertainty Assessment in Deterministic Models for Environmental Risk Assessment. Environmetrics, 14, 355-371.

Raftery, A.E. and Zheng, Y. (2003). Discussion: Performance of Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 98, 931-938.

2002

Wang, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Nearest Neighbor Variance Estimation (NNVE): Robust Covariance Estimation via Nearest Neighbor Cleaning (with Discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97, 994-1019.

Stanford, D.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Approximate Bayes factors for image segmentation: The Pseudolikelihood Information Criterion (PLIC). IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 24, 1517-1520.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Bayesian Estimation and Segmentation of Spatial Point Processes using Voronoi Tilings. In Spatial Cluster Modelling (A.G. Lawson and D. G.T. Denison, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press. Earlier technical report version. (Postscript).

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Model-Based Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97, 611-631.

Berchtold, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). The Mixture Transition Distribution (MTD) model for high-order Markov chains and non-Gaussian time series. Statistical Science, 17, 328-356.

Walsh, D.C.I and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Detecting mines in minefields with linear characteristics. Technometrics, 44, 34-44.

Walsh, D.C.I. and Raftery, A.E. (2002). Accurate and Efficient Curve Detection in Images: The Importance Sampling Hough Transform. Pattern Recognition, 35, 1421-1431.

Hoeting, J.A., Raftery, A.E. and Madigan, D. (2002). Bayesian variable and transformation selection in linear regression. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 11, 485-507.

2001

Yeung K.Y., Fraley C., Murua A, Raftery, A.E. and Ruzzo, W.L. (2001). Model-based clustering and data transformations for gene expression data. Bioinformatics, 17, 977-987.

Oh, M.-S. and Raftery, A.E. (2001). Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling and Choice of Dimension. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96, 1031-1044.

Viallefont, V., Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (2001). Variable selection and Bayesian model averaging in epidemiological case-control studies. Statistics in Medicine, 20, 3215-3230.

2000

Raftery, A.E. (2000). Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Vignette. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 654-661.

Poole, D.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Inference for deterministic simulation models: The Bayesian melding approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 1244-1255. Earlier, more complete technical report version (ps).

Stanford, D.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Principal curve clustering with noise. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Analysis, 22, 601-609.

Volinsky, C.T. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Bayesian information criterion for censored survival models. Biometrics, 56, 256--262.

1999

Hoeting, J.A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E. and Volinsky, C.T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial (with Discussion). Statistical Science, 14, 382--401. [Corrected version.] Correction: vol. 15, pp. 193-195. The corrected version is available at http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/online/hoeting1999.pdf. If cited, the corrected version should also be referenced, as here.

Raftery, A.E. (1999). Bayes factors and BIC - Comment on "A critique of the Bayesian information criterion for model selection". Sociological Methods and Research, 27, 411-427.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). MCLUST: Software for Model-Based Cluster Analysis. Journal of Classification, 16, 297-306.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Comparing explanations of fertility decline using event history models and unobserved heterogeneity. Sociological Methods and Research, 28, 35-60.

Campbell, J.G., Fraley, C., Stanford, D., Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Model-based methods for textile fault detection. International Journal of Imaging Science and Technology, 10, 339-346.

Forbes, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). Bayesian morphology: Fast unsupervised Bayesian image analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 555-568.

Poole, D., Givens, G.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1999). A proposed stock assessment method and its application to bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus. Fishery Bulletin, 97, 144-152. Earlier technical report version.

1998

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (1998). How many clusters? Which clustering methods? Answers via model-based cluster analysis. Computer Journal, 41, 578-588.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1998). Nearest neighbor clutter removal for estimating features in spatial point processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93, 577-584.

Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1998). Estimating bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, population size and rate of increase from the 1993 census. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93, 451-463.

Dasgupta, A. and Raftery, A.E. (1998). Detecting features in spatial point processes with clutter via model-based clustering. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93, 294-302.

1997

Campbell, J.G., Fraley, C., Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1997). Linear flaw detection in woven textiles using model-based clustering. Pattern Recognition Letters, 18, 1539-1548.

Petrone, S. and Raftery, A.E. (1997). A note on the Dirichlet process prior in Bayesian nonparametric inference with partial exchangeability. Statistics and Probability Letters, 36, 69-83.

Volinsky, C.T., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E. and Kronmal, R.A. (1997). Bayesian model averaging in proportional hazard models: Assessing stroke risk. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C---Applied Statistics, 46, 433-448.

DiCiccio, T.J., Kass, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Wasserman, L. (1997). Computing Bayes Factors by Combining Simulation and Asymptotic Approximations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, 903-915.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1997) Estimating Bayes factors via posterior simulation with the Laplace-Metropolis estimator. Journal of the American Statistical Assocation, 92, 648-655.

Bensmail, H., Celeux, G., Raftery, A.E. and Robert, C. (1997). Inference in model-based cluster analysis. Statistics and Computing, 7, 1-10.

Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Hoeting, J.A. (1997). Bayesian model averaging for regression models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, 179-191.

1996

Hoeting, J.A., Raftery, A.E. and Madigan, D. (1996). A method for simultaneous variable selection and outlier identification in linear regression. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 22, 251-270.

Le, N.D., Martin, R.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Modeling outliers, bursts and flat stretches in time series using mixture transition distribution (MTD) models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 1504-1515.

Givens, G.H., Zeh, J.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Implementing the current management regime for aboriginal subsistence whaling to establish a catch limit for the Bering--Chukchi--Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 46, 493--501.

Raftery, A.E. (1996). Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in generalized linear models. Biometrika, 83, 251-266.

Givens, G.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Local adaptive importance sampling for multivariate densities with strong nonlinear relationships. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 132-141.

Le, N.D., Raftery, A.E. and Martin, R.D. (1996). Robust order selection in autoregressive models using robust Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 123-131.

Kahn, M.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Discharge rates of Medicare stroke patients to skilled nursing facilities: Bayesian logistic regression with unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, 29-41.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M., Aghajanian, A. and Kahn, M.J. (1996). Event history analysis of World Fertility Survey data. Mathematical Population Studies, 6, 129-153. Earlier technical report version (ps).

Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (1996). Model selection for generalized linear models via GLIB, with application to epidemiology. In Bayesian Biostatistics (D.A. Berry and D.K. Stangl, eds.), New York: Marcel Dekker, pp. 321--354. Preprint (ps).

Raftery, A.E. and Lewis, S.M. (1996). Implementing MCMC. In Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice(W.R. Gilks, D.J. Spiegelhalter and S. Richardson, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall, pp. 115-130. Preprint (ps).

Raftery, A.E. (1996). Hypothesis testing and model selection. In Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice(W.R. Gilks, D.J. Spiegelhalter and S. Richardson, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall, pp. 163--188. Preprint (ps).

1995

Givens, G.H., Zeh, J.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1995). Assessment of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales using the BALEEN II model in a Bayesian synthesis framework. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 45, 345-364.

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1995). Response to comments by Butterworth and Punt in SC/46/AS2 on the Bayesian synthesis approach. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 45, 325-330.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M. and Aghajanian, A. (1995). Demand or ideation? Evidence from the Iranian marital fertility decline. Demography, 32, 159-182.

Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Volinsky, C.T. (1995). Accounting for model uncertainty in survival analysis improves predictive performance (with Discussion). In Bayesian Statistics 5 (J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid and A.F.M. Smith, eds.), Oxford University Press, pp. 323-349. Preprint (ps).

Raftery, A.E. (1995). Bayesian model selection in social research (with Discussion). Sociological Methodology, 25, 111-196.
Discussion: Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research, by A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin.
Discussion: Better rules for better decisions, by R. M. Hauser.
Rejoinder: Model selection is unavoidable in social research, by A. E. Raftery.

Kass, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1995). Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, 773-795.

Raftery, A.E., Givens, G.H. and Zeh, J.E. (1995). Inference from a deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales (with Discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, 402-430. Rejoinder. [The 1995 JASA-Applications and Case Studies Invited Paper.]

1994

Madigan, D.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1994). Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam's Window. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89, 1335-1346.

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1994). A reweighting approach for sensitivity analysis within the Bayesian synthesis framework for population assessment modeling. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 44, 377-384.

Taplin, R.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1994). Analysis of agricultural field trials in the presence of outliers and fertility jumps. Biometrics, 50, 764-781.

Raftery, A.E. and Tavare, S. (1994). Estimation and modelling repeated patterns in high-order Markov chains with the mixture transition distribution (MTD) model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics, 43, 179-200.

Newton, M.A. and Raftery, A.E. (1994). Approximate Bayesian inference by the weighted likelihood bootstrap (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 56, 3-48.

1993

Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E., York, J.C., Bradshaw, J.M., and Almond, R.G. (1993). Strategies for graphical model selection. Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pp. 361-366. Preprint (ps).

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1993). Benefits of a Bayesian approach for synthesizing multiple sources of evidence and uncertainty linked by a deterministic model. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 43, 495-500.

Raftery, A.E. and Schweder, T. (1993). Inference about the ratio of two parameters, with application to whale censusing. The American Statistician, 47, 259-264.

Raftery, A.E. (1993). Bayesian model selection in structural equation models. In Testing Stuctural Equation Models (K.A. Bollen and J.S. Long, eds.), Beverly Hills: Sage, pp. 163-180. Preprint.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M (1993). Maximally maintained inequality: Expansion, reform and opportunity in Irish education, 1921-1975. Sociology of Education, 66, 41-62.

Grunwald, G.K., Guttorp, P. and Raftery, A.E. (1993). Prediction rules for exponential family state-space models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 55, 937-943.

Banfield, J.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1993). Model-based Gaussian and non-Gaussian clustering. Biometrics, 49, 803-821.

Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1993). Estimation of Bowhead Whale, Balaena mysticetus, population size (with Discussion). In Bayesian Statistics in Science and Technology: Case Studies (C. Gatsonis et al., eds.), New York: Springer-Verlag, pp. 163-240.

Grunwald, G.K., Raftery, A.E. and Guttorp, P. (1993). Time series of continuous proportions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 55, 103-116.

Hout, M., Raftery, A.E. and Bell, E.O. (1993). Making the grade: Educational stratification in the United States, 1925-1989. In Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in Thirteen Countries, (Y. Shavit and P. Bloesfeld, eds.), Boulder: Westview Press, pp. 25-50.

1992

Banfield, J.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1992). Ice floe identification in satellite images using mathematical morphology and clustering about principal curves. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 8, 7-16.

1991

1990

Zeh, J.E., Raftery, A.E. and Yang, Q. (1990). Assessment of tracking algorithm performance and its effect on population estimates using bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, identified visually and acoustically in 1986 off Point Barrow, Alaska. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 40, 411-421.

Raftery, A.E., Zeh, J.E., Yang, Q. and Styer, P.E. (1990). Bayes empirical Bayes interval estimation of bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, population size based upon the 1986 combined visual and acoustic census off Point Barrow, Alaska. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 40, 393-409.

Stephen, E., Raftery, A.E. and Dowding, P. (1990). Forecasting spore concentrations: A time series approach. International Journal of Biometeorology, 34, 87-89.

Raftery, A.E. and Thompson, E.A. (1990). What is the probability of a serious nuclear reactor accident? Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 36, 31-34.

1989

O'Cinneide, C.A. and Raftery, A.E. (1989). A continuous multivariate exponential distribution that is multivariate phase type. Statistics and Probability Letters, 7, 323-325.

Haslett, J. and Raftery, A.E. (1989). Space-time modelling with long-memory dependence: Assessing Ireland's wind power resource (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics, 38, 1-50.

1988

Raftery, A.E., Turet, P. and Zeh, J.E. (1988). A parametric empirical Bayes approach to interval estimation of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, population size. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 38, 377-388.

Raftery, A.E. and Thompson, E.A. (1988). How many nuclear reactor accidents? Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 29, 347-350.

Raftery, A.E. (1988). Inference and prediction for the binomial N parameter: A hierarchical Bayes approach. Biometrika, 75, 223-228.

Raftery, A.E. (1988). Analysis of a simple debugging model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics, 37, 12-22.

1987

Martin, R.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1987). Robustness, computation, and non-Euclidean models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, 1044-1050.

1986

Raftery, A.E. (1986). A note on Bayes factors for log-linear contingency table models with vague prior information. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 48, 249-250.

Akman, V.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1986). Asymptotic inference for a change-point Poisson process. Annals of Statistics, 14, 1583-1590.

Raftery, A.E. and Akman, V.E. (1986). Bayesian analysis of a Poisson process with a change-point. Biometrika, 73, 85-89.

Raftery, A.E. (1986). Choosing models for cross-classifications. American Sociological Review, 51, 145-146.

1985

Raftery, A.E. (1985). Some properties of a new continuous bivariate exponential distribution. Statistics and Decisions, Supplement Issue No. 2, 53-58.

Raftery, A.E. (1985). Invited review: Time series analysis. European Journal of Operational Research, 20, 127-137.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M. (1985). Does Irish education approach the meritocratic ideal? A logistic analysis. Economic and Social Review, 16, 115-140.

Raftery, A.E. (1985). Social mobility measures for cross-national comparisons. Quality and Quantity, 19, 167-182.

1984

Raftery, A.E. (1984). A continuous multivariate exponential distribution. Communications in Statistics, A13, 947-965.

1983

1982

Raftery, A.E. (1982). Generalised non-normal time series models. In Time Series Analysis: Theory and Practice 1 (O.D. Anderson, ed.), North-Holland, pp. 621-640.

1981

Fuchs, C., Broniatowski, M. and Raftery, A.E. (1981). Étude de la division cellulaire dans le meristème plan de la feuille de Tropaeolum peregrinum L. II. Structures presentées par la distribution des mitoses. Comptes rendus de l'Académie des Sciences de Paris, série III, 292, 385-387.

1980

Raftery, A.E., Shier, P. and Obilade, T. (1980). Domestic space heating and solar energy in Ireland. International Journal of Energy Research, 4, 31-39.

1979

Updated May 9, 2023.

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Copyright 2005-2023 by Adrian E. Raftery; all rights reserved.