Metodiev, M., Perrot-Dockes, Ouadah, S., Irons, N.J., Latouche, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2024).
Easily Computed Marginal Likelihoods from Posterior Simulation Using the THAMES Estimator.
*Bayesian Analysis* 1-28.

Liu, B., Lubold, S., Raftery, A.E. and McCormick, T.H. (2024).
Bayesian hyperbolic multidimensional scaling.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, advance publication.
Preprint.

Yu, C., Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E., and Curran, S. (2023).
Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.
*Demography*, 60: 915-937.

Liu, P.R., Ševčíková , H., and Raftery, A.E.
Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual
Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty.
*Journal of Statistical Software*, 106: issue 8.

Raftery, A.E. and Ševčíková , H. (2023).
Probabilistic Population Forecasting: Short to Very Long Term.
*International Journal of Forecasting* 39: 73--97.

Gormley, I.C., Murphy, T.B. and Raftery, A.E. (2023).
Model-Based Clustering.
*Annual Review of Statistics and its Applications* 10: 573--595.

Porwal, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2023).
Effect of model space priors on statistical inference with model uncertainty.
*New England Journal of Statistics and Data Science*, 1: 149-158.

Kaur, H., Rastelli, R., Friel, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2023). Latent Position Network Models. Chapter 36 in Sage Handbook of Social Network Analysis (2nd Edition), edited by J. McLevey, P. Carrington and J. Scott, Sage Publications. Preprint.

Alkema, L., Murphy, T.B. and Raftery, A.E. (2023).
Interview With Adrian Raftery.
*International Statistical Review* 91: 349-367.
Preprint.

Zeppetello, Z.V., Raftery, A.E. and Battisti, D.S. (2022).
A Dangerous Future: Probabilistic Projections of
Increased Heat Stress Driven By Global Climate Change.
*Communications Earth and Environment* 3: article 183.

- Extreme Heat Will Change Us.
(
*New York Times*interactive feature.)

Chen, X., Raftery, A.E., Battisti, D.S. and Liu, P.R. (2022).
Long-Term Probabilistic Temperature Projections for All Locations.
*Climate Dynamics* 60: 2303--2314.

Director, H.M. and Raftery, A.E. (2022).
Contour Models for Physical Boundaries Enclosing Star-Shaped and Approximately Star-Shaped Polygons.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C-Applied Statistics* 71: 1688--1720.
Preprint.

Rennert, K., Prest, B.C., Pizer, W.A., Newell, R.G., Anthoff, D., Kington, C., Rennels, L., Cooke, R., Raftery, A.E., ,Ševčíková , H. and Errickson, F. (2022).
The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic
Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates.
*Brookings Papers on Economic Activity* 2021: 223--305.

Welch, N.G. and Raftery, A.E. (2022).
Probabilistic Forecasts of International Bilateral Migration Flows.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 119 (35): e2203822119.

Porwal, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2022).
Comparing methods for statistical inference with model uncertainty.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, 119:2120737119.

Jiang, B., Raftery, A.E., Steele, R.J. and Wang, N. (2022).
Balancing Inferential Integrity and Disclosure Risk via Model Targeted
Masking and Multiple Imputation.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 117:52-66.

- Pearce, M., Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Will this be a record-breaking century for human longevity?
*Significance*18:6-7. - Pearce, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
The maximum human life span will likely increase this century,
but not by more than a decade.
*The Conversation*, August 10, 2021.

Gao, P.A., Director, H.M., Bitz, C.M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Probabilistic Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness.
*Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics*,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-021-00480-0

Irons, N.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Infections from Deaths, Confirmed Cases, Tests, and Random Surveys.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 118:e2103272118.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.
*Journal of Official Statistics*, 37:591-610.

Director, H., Raftery, A.E. and Bitz, C. (2021).
Probabilistic forecasting of the Arctic sea ice edge with contour modeling.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 15:711-726.
(Preprint.)

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Country-based emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond
nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 C target.
*Communications Earth and Environment* 2:Article 29.
UW News article.
Washington Post article.
Spring Nature Sustainability Community post.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2021).
Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.
*Annals of Applied Statistics* 15:437--459.

Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and Silverman, B.W. (2021).
The **vote** Package: Single Transferable Vote and Other Electoral Systems in R.
*R Journal*, 13: 673-696.

Green, A., McCormick, T.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2020).
Consistency for the tree bootstrap in respondent driven sampling.
*Biometrika*, 107:497-504.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2020).
Accounting for Uncertainty About Past Values In Probabilistic Projections
of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 14:661-705.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2020).
Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both sexes jointly in 69 countries.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 14:381-408.

Mulder, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
BIC extensions for order-constrained model selection.
*Sociological Methods and Research*, Article Number: 0049124119882459.

Maire, F., Friel, N., Mira, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
Adaptive incremental mixture Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics* 28:790-805.
Preprint..

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
Estimation of emigration, return migration, and
transit migration between all pairs of countries.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 116:116--122.

Liang, X., Young, W.C., Hung, L.H., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y (2019).
Integration of Multiple Data Sources for Gene Network Inference Using Genetic Perturbation Data.
*Journal of Computational Biology* 26:1113--1129.

Young, W.C., Yeung, K.Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2019).
Identifying dynamical time series model parameters from equilibrium samples,
with application to gene regulatory networks.
*Statistical Modelling* 19:444--465.

Hernandez, B., Raftery, A.E., Pennington, S.R. and Parnell, A.C. (2018).
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees using Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Statistics and Computing* 28:869--890.
Preprint.

Scrucca, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2018).
clustvarsel: A package implementing variable
selection for model-based clustering in R.
*Journal of Statistical Software* 84(1):1--28.

Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E. and Gerland, P. (2018).
Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates.
*Demographic Research* 38:1843--1884.

Sharrow, D.J., Godwin, J., He, Y., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2018).
Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries
with Generalized HIV/AIDS Epidemics.
*Population Studies* 72:1--15.
Preprint.

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2017).
Model-based clustering with data correction for removing artifacts
in gene expression data..
*Annals of Applied Statistics* 11:1998--2026. (Open access).

Godwin, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2017).
Bayesian Projection of Life Expectancy Accounting for the HIV/AIDS Epidemic.
*Demographic Research* 37:1549--1610.

Director, H.M., Raftery, A.E. and Bitz, C.M. (2017).
Improved Sea Ice Forecasting Through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction.
*Journal of Climate* 30:9493--9510.

Hung, L.H., Shi, K., Wu, M., Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2017).
fastBMA: Scalable Network Inference and Transitive Reduction.
*Gigascience* 6:issue 10.
PubMed.

Rastelli, R., Friel, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Properties of latent variable network models.
*Network Science* 4:407--432.
Preprint.

Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.
*Statistical Analysis and Data Mining* 9:397-410.
Preprint.

Scrucca, L., Fop, M., Murphy, T.B. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
mclust 5: Clustering, classification and density estimation using
Gaussian finite mixture models.
*R Journal* 8:289-317.

Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
bayesPop: Probabilistic population projections.
*Journal of Statistical Software* 75(5):1-29.

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2016).
A posterior probability approach for gene regulatory
network inference in genetic perturbation data.
*Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering*, 13:1241-1251.
Preprint.

Azose, J. J., Ševčíková , H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 113:6460-6465.

Friel, N., Wyse, J. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Interlocking directorates in Irish companies using bipartite
networks: a latent space approach.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, 113: 6629-6634.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2016).
Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less
developed and developed countries.
*Population Studies* 70:21-37.

Onorante, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces.
*European Economic Review* 81:2-14.

Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Kantorova, V., Gerland, P.
and Raftery, A.E. (2016).
Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population
Projections.
Chapter 15 in *Dynamic Demographic Analysis*
(R. Schoen, ed.), pages 285-310, Springer, New York.
Preprint.

Maltiel, R., Raftery, A.E., McCormick, T.H. and Baraff, A. (2015).
Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 9:1247-1277.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2015).
Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration Rates.
*Demography* 52:1627-1650.

Scrucca, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2015).
Improved initialisation of model-based clustering using a Gaussian
hierarchical partition.
*Advances in Data Analysis and Classification* 9:447-460.

Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (2015).
Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh
Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.
*Statistics and Its Interface*, 8:125-136.
Preprint.

Alkema, L., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. and Wilmoth, J.R. (2015).
The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections:
An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty.
*Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting* 37:19-24.

Bijak, J., Alberts, I., Alho, J., Bryant, J., Buettner, T., Falkingham, J.,
Forster, J.J., Gerland, P., King, T., Onorante, L., Keilman, N., O'Hagan, A.,
Owens, D., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and
Smith, P.W.F. (2015).
Uncertain Population Forecasting: A Case for Practical Uses.
*Journal of Official Statistics* 31:537-544.

Fronczuk, M., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2015).
CyNetworkBMA: a Cytoscape app for inferring gene regulatory networks.
*Source Code for Biology and Medicine* 10:article 11.

Raftery, A.E. (2015).
Paul Deheuvels: Mentor, Advocate for Statistics, and Applied Statistician. In
*Mathematical Statistics and Limit Theorems:
Festschrift for Paul Deheuvels*, edited by D.M. Mason,
M. Hallin, D. Pfeifer and J. Steinebach, Springer, New York, pp. 1-6.

Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L. and Gerland, P. (2014).
Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations.
*Statistical Science*, 29:58-68.

Sharrow, D.J., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV
Epidemics. *PLoS One*, 9:article e96447.

Young, W.C., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2014).
Fast Bayesian Inference for Gene Regulatory Networks Using ScanBMA.
*BMC Systems Biology*, 8:article 47.

Celeux, G., Martin-Magniette, M.-L., Maugis-Rabusseau, C. and
Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Comparing Model Selection and Regularization
Approaches to Variable Selection in Model-Based Clustering.
*Journal de la Société Française de Statistique*,
155(2):57-71.

Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N. and Gerland, P. (2014).
Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy.
*Demographic Research*, 30:795--822.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling
Between-Country Correlations.
*Demographic Research* 30:1011--1034.

Lenkoski, A., Eicher, T.S. and Raftery, A.E. (2014).
Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models.
*Econometric Reviews*, 33:122-151.
Preprint.

Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and
Ševčíková , H. (2013).
Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries.
*Demography*, 50:777-801.

Sloughter, J.M., Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2013)
Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting using Ensembles and
Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 141:2107-2119.

Raftery, A.E., Niu, X., Hoff, P.D. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012).
Fast Inference for the
Latent Space Network Model Using a Case-Control Approximate Likelihood.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 21:909-919.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2012).
Estimating the Correlation in
Bivariate Normal Data with Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes.
*The American Statistician*, 66:34-41.

Lo, K., Raftery, A.E., Dombek, K., Zhu, J., Schadt, E.E.,
Bumgarner, R.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2012).
Integrating External Biological Knowledge in the Construction of Regulatory
Networks from Time-series Expression Data.
*BMC Systems Biology* 6: article 101.

Bao, L., Salomon, J.A., Brown, T., Raftery, A.E. and Hogan, D. (2012).
Modeling HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and
Projection Package 2011.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 88:i3-i10.

McCormick, T.M., Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Burd, R.S. (2012).
Dynamic Logistic Regression and Dynamic Model Averaging
for Binary Classification.
*Biometrics* 68:23-30.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2012).
Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources
and Assessing its Uncertainty.
*Demographic Research* 26:331-362.

Yeung, K.Y., Gooley, T.A., Zhang, A., Raftery, A.E., Radich, J.P. and
Oehler, V.G. (2012).
Predicting relapse prior to transplantation in chronic myeloid
leukemia by integrating expert knowledge and expression data.
*Bioinformatics* 28:823-830.

Ševčíková , H., Alkema, L. and Raftery, A.E. (2011).
bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic
Projections of the Total Fertility Rate.
*Journal of Statistical Software* 43:1-29.

Kleiber, W., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2011).
Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic
quantitative precipitation forecasting.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association* 106:1291-1303.

Kleiber, W., Raftery, A.E., Baars, J., Gneiting, T., Mass, C.F.
and Grimit, E.P. (2011).
Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Temperature Forecasting Using
Geostatistical Model Averaging and Local Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review* 139:2630-2649.

Chmielecki, R.M. and A.E. Raftery (2011).
Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review* 139:1626--1636.

Yeung, K.Y., Dombek, K.M., Lo, K., Mittler, J.E., Zhu, J., Schadt, E.E.,
Bumgarner, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (2011).
Construction of regulatory networks using expression time-series data
of a genotyped population.
*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 108:19436-19441.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Sloughter, M.
and Berrocal, V.J. (2011).
Probabilistic Weather Forecasting in R.
*R Journal*, 3:55-63.

Ševčíková , H., Raftery, A.E., and Waddell, P.A. (2011).
Assessing Uncertainty About the Benefits of Transportation
Infrastructure Projects Using Bayesian Melding:
Application to Seattle's Alaskan Way Viaduct.
*Transportation Research Part A - Methodological* 45:540-553.

Raftery, A.E., Karny, M., and Ettler, P. (2010).
Online Prediction Under Model Uncertainty Via
Dynamic Model Averaging: Application to a Cold Rolling Mill.
*Technometrics* 52:52-66.

Berrocal, V.J., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2010).
Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association* 105:522-537.

Brown, T., L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley,
J. Stover, and P. Gerland (2010).
Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era:
the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 86:i3--i10.

Bao, L. and A.E. Raftery (2010).
A stochastic infection rate model for estimating and projecting national
HIV prevalence rates.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 86:i93--i99.

Steele, R.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Performance of Bayesian Model Selection Criteria for Gaussian Mixture Models.
In *Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis*
(edited by M.-H. Chen et al), pages 113-130, New York: Springer.
Preprint.

Eicher, T., Papageorgiou, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Determining Growth Determinants: Default Priors and
Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Journal of Applied Econometrics* 26:30-55.

Baudry, J.-P., Raftery, A.E., Celeux, G., Lo, K. and Gottardo, R. (2010).
Combining Mixture Components for Clustering.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics* 19:332-353.

Bao, L., Gneiting, T., Grimit, E.P., Guttorp, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Bias correction and Bayesian Model
Averaging for ensemble forecasts of surface wind direction.
*Monthly Weather Review* 138:1811-1821.

Sloughter, J.M., Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using
Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association* 105:25-35.

Murphy, T.B., Dean. N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Variable Selection and Updating In Model-Based Discriminant Analysis
for High Dimensional Data with Food Authenticity Applications.
*Annals of Applied Statistics* 4:396-421.

Dean, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Latent Class Analysis Variable Selection.
*Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics* 62:11-35.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2010).
Calibrating Multi-Model Forecast Ensembles with Exchangeable and Missing
Members using Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review* 138:190-202.

Steele, R.J., Wang, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2010).
Inference from multiple imputation for missing data
using mixtures of normals.
*Statistical Methodology* 7:351-365.

Gottardo, R. and Raftery, A.E. (2009).
Markov chain Monte Carlo with mixtures of singular distributions.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics* 17:949-975.

Krivitsky, P., Handcock, M.S., Raftery, A.E. and Hoff, P. (2009).
Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in
Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Ects Models.
*Social Networks* 31:204-213.

Mass, C.F., Joslyn, S., Pyle, J., Tewson, P., Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E.,
Baars, J., Sloughter, J.M., Jones, D. and Fraley, C. (2009).
PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts.
*Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society* 90:1009-1014.

Oehler, V.G., Yeung, K.Y., Choi, Y.E., Bumgarner, R.E.,
Raftery, A.E. and Radich, J.P. (2009).
The derivation of diagnostic markers of chronic myeloid leukemia
progression from microarray data.
*Blood* 114:3292-3298.

Annest, A., Bumgarner, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2009).
Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging: a method for the application of
survival analysis to high-dimensional microarray data.
*BMC Bioinformatics* 10, article 72.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Brown, T. (2008).
Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in
national HIV prevalence estimates.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 84:i11-i16.

Brown, T., Salomon, J.A., Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Gouws, E. (2008).
Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics:
The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007.
*Sexually Transmitted Infections* 84:i5-i10.

Chu, V.T., Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Bumgarner, R.E. and Yeung, K.Y. (2008).
MeV+R: using MeV as a graphical user interface for Bioconductor applications
in microarray analysis. *Genome Biology* 7: article R118.

Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Raftery, A.E. (2007).
Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B*, 69, 243-268.

Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2007).
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 102, 359-378.

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E. and Clark, S.J. (2007).
Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence
using Bayesian melding.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 1, 229-248.

Oh, M.-S. and Raftery, A.E. (2007).
Model-based Clustering with Dissimilarities: A Bayesian Approach.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 16, 559-585.

Berrocal, V., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2007).
Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in
Probabilistic Weather Forecasts.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 135, 1386-1402.

Wilson, L.J., Beauregard, S., Raftery, A.E. and Verret, R. (2007).
Calibrated Surface Temperature Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction y
stem Using Bayesian Model Averaging (with Discussion).
*Monthly Weather Review*, 135, 1364-1385. Discussion pages 4226-4236.

Sloughter, J.M., Raftery, A.E. and Gneiting, T. (2007).
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation
Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 135, 3209-3220.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2007).
Bayesian Regularization for Normal
Mixture Estimation and Model-Based Clustering.
*Journal of Classification*, 24, 155-181.

Raftery, A.E., Newton, M.A., Satagopan, J.M. and Krivitsky, P. (2007).
Estimating the Integrated Likelihood via Posterior Simulation
Using the Harmonic Mean Identity (with Discussion).
In *Bayesian Statistics 8* (edited by J.M. Bernardo et al.),
pp. 1-45, Oxford University Press.

Sevcikova, H., Raftery, A.E. and Waddell, P. (2007).
Assessing Uncertainty in Urban
Simulations Using Bayesian Melding.
*Transportation Research B*, 41, 652-669.

Fraley C. and Raftery A.E. (2007).
Model-based
methods of classification: Using the mclust software in chemometrics.
*Journal of Statistical Software*, 18, paper i06.

Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Bumgarner, R.E. (2006).
Robust Estimation of cDNA Microarray Intensities with Replicates.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 101, 30-40.

Gottardo, R., Raftery, A.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Bumgarner, R.E. (2006).
Bayesian Robust Inference for Differential Gene Expression in cDNA
Microarrays with Multiple Samples.
*Biometrics*, 62, 10-18.

Steele, R., Raftery, A.E. and Emond, M. (2006).
Computing Normalizing Constants for Finite Mixture Models
via Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling (IMIS).
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 15, 712-734.

Forbes, F., Peyrard, N., Fraley, C., Georgian-Smith, D.,
Goldhaber, D.M., and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
Model-Based Region-of-Interest
Selection in Dynamic Breast MRI.
*Journal of Computer Assisted Tomography*, 30, 675-687.

Tewson, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
Real-Time Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Website.
*Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*, 7, 880-882.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
Some applications of model-based clustering in chemistry.
*R News*, 6, no. 3, 17-23.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
Model-based microarray image analysis.
*R News*, 6, no. 5, 60-63.

Czado, C.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2006).
``Choosing the Link function and Accounting for Link Uncertainty in
Generalized Linear Models using Bayes Factors.''
*Statistical Papers*, 47, 419-442.
Earlier technical report.

Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E. and Wehrens, R. (2005).
Incremental Model-Based Clustering for Large Datasets with Small Clusters.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 14, 529-546.

Raftery, A.E., Painter, I. and Volinsky, C.T. (2005).
BMA: An R package for Bayesian Model Averaging.
*R News*, volume 5, number 2, 2-8.

Murtagh, F., Raftery, A.E., and J.L. Starck (2005).
Bayesian inference for multiband image segmentation via model-based cluster
trees.
*Image and Vision Computing*, 23, 587-596.

Dean, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
``Normal uniform mixture differential gene expression detection for
cDNA microarrays.''
*BMC Bioinformatics*, 6, 173. (doi:10.1186/1471-2105-6-173).

Li, Q., Fraley, C., Bumgarner, R.E., Yeung, K.Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
``Donuts, Scratches and Blanks: Robust Model-Based Segmentation
of Microarray Images.''
*Bioinformatics*, 21(12), 2875-2882
(doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/bti447).

Yeung, K.Y., Bumgarner, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
`` Bayesian Model Averaging: Development of an improved multi-class,
gene selection and classification tool for microarray data.''
*Bioinformatics*, 21(10), 2394-2402 (doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/bti319).

Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M. (2005).
Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 133, 1155-1174.

Gneiting, T., Raftery, A.E., Westveld, A. and Goldman, T. (2005).
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output
Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation.
*Monthly Weather Review*, 133, 1098-1118.

Fuentes, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
Model evaluation and spatial interpolation by Bayesian
combination of observations with outputs from numerical models.
*Biometrics*, 66, 36--45.

Walsh, D.C.I. and Raftery, A.E. (2005).
Classification of mixtures of spatial point processes
via partial Bayes factors.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 14, 139-154.

Earlier technical report version with color figures.

Wehrens, R., Buydens, L.M.C., Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2004).
Model-Based Clustering for Image Segmentation and Large Datasets Via Sampling.
*Journal of Classification*, 21, 231-253.

Bates, S., Raftery, A.E. and Cullen, A.C. (2003).
Bayesian Uncertainty Assessment in Deterministic
Models for Environmental Risk Assessment. *Environmetrics*,
14, 355-371.

Raftery, A.E. and Zheng, Y. (2003).
Discussion: Performance of Bayesian Model Averaging.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 98, 931-938.

Wang, N. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Nearest Neighbor Variance Estimation (NNVE):
Robust Covariance Estimation via Nearest Neighbor Cleaning
(with Discussion).
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 97, 994-1019.

Stanford, D.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Approximate Bayes factors for image segmentation:
The Pseudolikelihood Information Criterion (PLIC).
*IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence*, 24, 1517-1520.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Bayesian Estimation and Segmentation of Spatial Point Processes using Voronoi Tilings.
In *Spatial Cluster Modelling* (A.G. Lawson and D. G.T. Denison, eds.),
London: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.
Earlier technical report version. (Postscript).

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Model-Based Clustering,
Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 97, 611-631.

Berchtold, A. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
The Mixture Transition Distribution
(MTD) model for high-order Markov chains and non-Gaussian time series.
*Statistical Science*, 17, 328-356.

Walsh, D.C.I and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Detecting mines in minefields with
linear characteristics. *Technometrics*, 44, 34-44.

Walsh, D.C.I. and Raftery, A.E. (2002).
Accurate and Efficient Curve Detection
in Images: The Importance Sampling Hough Transform.
*Pattern Recognition*, 35, 1421-1431.

Hoeting, J.A., Raftery, A.E. and Madigan, D. (2002).
Bayesian variable and transformation selection in linear regression.
*Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics*, 11, 485-507.

Yeung K.Y., Fraley C., Murua A, Raftery, A.E. and Ruzzo, W.L. (2001).
Model-based clustering and data transformations for gene expression data.
*Bioinformatics*, 17, 977-987.

Oh, M.-S. and Raftery, A.E. (2001).
Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling and
Choice of Dimension.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 96, 1031-1044.

Viallefont, V., Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (2001).
Variable selection and Bayesian model averaging in epidemiological
case-control studies. *Statistics in Medicine*, 20, 3215-3230.

Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Statistics in Sociology, 1950--2000: A Vignette.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 95, 654-661.

Poole, D.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Inference for deterministic
simulation models: The Bayesian melding approach.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 95, 1244-1255.
Earlier, more complete technical report version (ps).

Stanford, D.C. and Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Principal curve clustering with noise.
*IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Analysis*, 22, 601-609.

Volinsky, C.T. and Raftery, A.E. (2000).
Bayesian information criterion
for censored survival models.
*Biometrics*, 56, 256--262.

Hoeting, J.A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E. and Volinsky, C.T. (1999).
Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial (with Discussion).
*Statistical Science*, 14, 382--401. [Corrected version.]
Correction: vol. 15, pp. 193-195. The corrected version is available
at http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/online/hoeting1999.pdf.
If cited, the corrected version should also be referenced, as here.

Raftery, A.E. (1999).
Bayes factors and BIC - Comment on
"A critique of the Bayesian information criterion for model selection".
*Sociological Methods and Research*, 27, 411-427.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
MCLUST: Software for Model-Based Cluster Analysis.
*Journal of Classification*, 16, 297-306.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
Comparing explanations of fertility
decline using event history models and unobserved heterogeneity.
*Sociological Methods and Research*, 28, 35-60.

Campbell, J.G., Fraley, C., Stanford, D., Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
Model-based methods for textile fault detection.
*International Journal of Imaging Science and Technology*, 10, 339-346.

Forbes, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
Bayesian morphology: Fast unsupervised Bayesian image analysis.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94*, 555-568.

Poole, D., Givens, G.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1999).
A proposed stock assessment method and its application to bowhead whales,
*Balaena mysticetus*. *Fishery Bulletin*, 97, 144-152.
Earlier technical report version.

Fraley, C. and Raftery, A.E. (1998).
How many clusters? Which clustering
methods? Answers via model-based cluster analysis.
*Computer Journal*, 41, 578-588.

Byers, S.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1998).
Nearest neighbor clutter removal
for estimating features in spatial point processes.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 93, 577-584.

Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1998).
Estimating bowhead whale, *Balaena mysticetus*, population size and
rate of increase from the 1993 census.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 93, 451-463.

Dasgupta, A. and Raftery, A.E. (1998).
Detecting features in spatial point processes with clutter via model-based
clustering.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 93, 294-302.

Campbell, J.G., Fraley, C., Murtagh, F. and Raftery, A.E. (1997).
Linear flaw detection in woven textiles using model-based clustering.
*Pattern Recognition Letters*, 18, 1539-1548.

Petrone, S. and Raftery, A.E. (1997).
A note on the Dirichlet process prior in Bayesian nonparametric inference
with partial exchangeability.
*Statistics and Probability Letters, 36*, 69-83.

Volinsky, C.T., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E. and Kronmal, R.A. (1997).
Bayesian model averaging in proportional hazard models: Assessing stroke risk.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C---Applied Statistics,
46*, 433-448.

DiCiccio, T.J., Kass, R.E., Raftery, A.E. and Wasserman, L. (1997).
Computing Bayes Factors by Combining Simulation and Asymptotic Approximations.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92*, 903-915.

Lewis, S.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1997)
Estimating Bayes factors via posterior
simulation with the Laplace-Metropolis estimator.
*Journal of the American Statistical Assocation, 92*, 648-655.

Bensmail, H., Celeux, G., Raftery, A.E. and Robert, C. (1997).
Inference in model-based cluster analysis.
*Statistics and Computing, 7, *1-10.

Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Hoeting, J.A. (1997).
Bayesian model averaging for regression models.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, *179-191.

Hoeting, J.A., Raftery, A.E. and Madigan, D. (1996).
A method for simultaneous
variable selection and outlier identification in linear regression.
*Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 22, *251-270.

Le, N.D., Martin, R.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1996).
Modeling outliers, bursts and
flat stretches in time series using mixture transition distribution
(MTD) models.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, *1504-1515.

Givens, G.H., Zeh, J.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1996). Implementing the current management regime for aboriginal subsistence whaling to establish a catch limit for the Bering--Chukchi--Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales. Report of the International Whaling Commission, 46, 493--501.

Raftery, A.E. (1996).
Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in
generalized linear models.
*Biometrika, 83, *251-266.

Givens, G.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1996).
Local adaptive importance sampling for
multivariate densities with strong nonlinear relationships.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, *132-141.

Le, N.D., Raftery, A.E. and Martin, R.D. (1996).
Robust order selection in autoregressive models using robust Bayes factors.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, *123-131.

Kahn, M.J. and Raftery, A.E. (1996).
Discharge rates of Medicare stroke
patients to skilled nursing facilities: Bayesian logistic regression with
unobserved heterogeneity.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, *29-41.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M., Aghajanian, A. and Kahn, M.J. (1996).
Event history analysis of World Fertility Survey data.
*Mathematical Population Studies, 6, *129-153.
Earlier technical report version (ps).

Raftery, A.E. and Richardson, S. (1996).
Model selection for generalized
linear models via GLIB, with application to epidemiology.
In *Bayesian Biostatistics *(D.A. Berry and D.K. Stangl, eds.),
New York: Marcel Dekker, pp. 321--354.
Preprint (ps).

Raftery, A.E. and Lewis, S.M. (1996). Implementing MCMC.
In *Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice*(W.R. Gilks, D.J. Spiegelhalter
and S. Richardson, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall, pp. 115-130.
Preprint (ps).

Raftery, A.E. (1996). Hypothesis testing and model selection.
In *Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice*(W.R. Gilks, D.J. Spiegelhalter
and S. Richardson, eds.), London: Chapman and Hall, pp. 163--188.
Preprint (ps).

Givens, G.H., Zeh, J.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1995).
Assessment of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales
using the BALEEN II model in a Bayesian synthesis framework.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 45, *345-364.

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1995).
Response to comments by Butterworth and Punt in SC/46/AS2 on the
Bayesian synthesis approach.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 45, *325-330.

Raftery, A.E., Lewis, S.M. and Aghajanian, A. (1995).
Demand or ideation? Evidence from the Iranian marital fertility decline.
*Demography, 32, *159-182.

Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Volinsky, C.T. (1995).
Accounting for model uncertainty in survival analysis improves predictive
performance (with Discussion). In *Bayesian Statistics 5
*(J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid and A.F.M. Smith, eds.),
Oxford University Press, pp. 323-349.
Preprint (ps).

Raftery, A.E. (1995).
Bayesian model selection in social research
(with Discussion). *Sociological Methodology*, 25, 111-196.

Discussion: Avoiding model selection
in Bayesian social research, by A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin.

Discussion: Better rules for better
decisions, by R. M. Hauser.

Rejoinder: Model selection is
unavoidable in social research, by A. E. Raftery.

Kass, R.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1995).
Bayes factors.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, *773-795.

Raftery, A.E., Givens, G.H. and Zeh, J.E. (1995).
Inference from a
deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales (with Discussion).
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, *402-430.
Rejoinder.
[The 1995 JASA-Applications and Case Studies Invited Paper.]

Madigan, D.M. and Raftery, A.E. (1994).
Model selection and accounting for
model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam's Window.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association,
89, *1335-1346.

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1994).
A reweighting approach
for sensitivity analysis within the Bayesian synthesis framework for
population assessment modeling. *Report of the International Whaling
Commission, 44, *377-384.

Taplin, R.H. and Raftery, A.E. (1994).
Analysis of agricultural
field trials in the presence of outliers and fertility jumps.
*Biometrics, 50, *764-781.

Raftery, A.E. and Tavare, S. (1994).
Estimation and modelling repeated patterns in high-order Markov chains
with the mixture transition distribution (MTD) model.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C -
Applied Statistics, 43, *179-200.

Newton, M.A. and Raftery, A.E. (1994).
Approximate Bayesian
inference by the weighted likelihood bootstrap (with Discussion).
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 56, *3-48.

Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E., York, J.C., Bradshaw, J.M., and
Almond, R.G. (1993). Strategies for graphical model selection.
*Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on
Artificial Intelligence and Statistics*, pp. 361-366.
Preprint (ps).

Givens, G.H., Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1993).
Benefits of a Bayesian approach for synthesizing multiple sources of
evidence and uncertainty linked by a deterministic model.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 43, *495-500.

Raftery, A.E. and Schweder, T. (1993).
Inference about the ratio of
two parameters, with application to whale censusing.
*The American Statistician, 47, *259-264.

Raftery, A.E. (1993).
Bayesian model selection in structural equation models.
In *Testing Stuctural Equation Models *(K.A. Bollen and J.S. Long, eds.),
Beverly Hills: Sage, pp. 163-180.
Preprint.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M (1993).
Maximally maintained inequality: Expansion, reform and opportunity
in Irish education, 1921-1975.
*Sociology of Education, 66, *41-62.

Grunwald, G.K., Guttorp, P. and Raftery, A.E. (1993).
Prediction rules for exponential family state-space models.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 55, *937-943.

Banfield, J.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1993).
Model-based Gaussian and non-Gaussian clustering.
*Biometrics, 49, *803-821.

Raftery, A.E. and Zeh, J.E. (1993).
Estimation of Bowhead Whale,
*Balaena mysticetus, *population size (with Discussion).
In *Bayesian Statistics in Science and Technology: Case Studies
*(C. Gatsonis et al., eds.), New York: Springer-Verlag, pp. 163-240.

Grunwald, G.K., Raftery, A.E. and Guttorp, P. (1993).
Time series of continuous proportions.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B,
55, *103-116.

Hout, M., Raftery, A.E. and Bell, E.O. (1993).
Making the grade: Educational
stratification in the United States, 1925-1989.
In *Persistent Inequality: Changing Educational Attainment in
Thirteen Countries, *(Y. Shavit and P. Bloesfeld, eds.),
Boulder: Westview Press, pp. 25-50.

Banfield, J.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1992).
Ice floe identification in
satellite images using mathematical morphology and clustering about
principal curves. *Journal of the American Statistical Association,
8*, 7-16.

Zeh, J.E., Raftery, A.E. and Yang, Q. (1990).
Assessment of tracking algorithm performance and its effect on population
estimates using bowhead whales, *Balaena mysticetus, *identified
visually and acoustically in 1986 off Point Barrow, Alaska.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 40, *411-421.

Raftery, A.E., Zeh, J.E., Yang, Q. and Styer, P.E. (1990).
Bayes empirical Bayes interval estimation of bowhead whale,
*Balaena mysticetus, *population size based upon the 1986 combined
visual and acoustic census off Point Barrow, Alaska.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 40, *393-409.

Stephen, E., Raftery, A.E. and Dowding, P. (1990).
Forecasting spore concentrations: A time series approach.
*International Journal of Biometeorology, 34, *87-89.

Raftery, A.E. and Thompson, E.A. (1990).
What is the probability of a serious nuclear reactor accident?
*Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 36, *31-34.

O'Cinneide, C.A. and Raftery, A.E. (1989).
A continuous multivariate exponential distribution that is multivariate
phase type.
*Statistics and Probability Letters, 7, *323-325.

Haslett, J. and Raftery, A.E. (1989).
Space-time modelling with long-memory dependence: Assessing Ireland's
wind power resource (with Discussion).
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics,
38, *1-50.

Raftery, A.E., Turet, P. and Zeh, J.E. (1988).
A parametric empirical Bayes approach to interval estimation of bowhead whales,
*Balaena mysticetus,
*population size.
*Report of the International Whaling Commission, 38, *377-388.

Raftery, A.E. and Thompson, E.A. (1988).
How many nuclear reactor accidents?
*Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 29, *347-350.

Raftery, A.E. (1988).
Inference and prediction for the binomial N parameter: A hierarchical
Bayes approach.
*Biometrika, 75, *223-228.

Raftery, A.E. (1988).
Analysis of a simple debugging model.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series C - Applied Statistics,
37, *12-22.

Martin, R.D. and Raftery, A.E. (1987).
Robustness, computation, and non-Euclidean models.
*Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, *1044-1050.

Raftery, A.E. (1986).
A note on Bayes factors for log-linear contingency table models
with vague prior information.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 48, *249-250.

Akman, V.E. and Raftery, A.E. (1986).
Asymptotic inference for a change-point Poisson process.
*Annals of Statistics, 14, *1583-1590.

Raftery, A.E. and Akman, V.E. (1986).
Bayesian analysis of a Poisson process with a change-point.
*Biometrika, 73, *85-89.

Raftery, A.E. (1986).
Choosing models for cross-classifications.
*American Sociological Review, 51, *145-146.

Raftery, A.E. (1985).
Some properties of a new continuous bivariate exponential distribution.
*Statistics and Decisions,
*Supplement Issue No. 2, 53-58.

Raftery, A.E. (1985).
Invited review: Time series analysis.
*European Journal of Operational Research, 20, *127-137.

Raftery, A.E. and Hout, M. (1985).
Does Irish education approach the meritocratic ideal? A logistic
analysis.
*Economic and Social Review, 16, *115-140.

Raftery, A.E. (1985).
Social mobility measures for cross-national comparisons.
*Quality and Quantity, 19, *167-182.

Raftery, A.E. (1984).
A continuous multivariate exponential distribution.
*Communications in Statistics, A13, *947-965.

Raftery, A.E. (1982).
Generalised non-normal time series models. In
*Time Series Analysis: Theory and Practice 1
*(O.D. Anderson, ed.), North-Holland, pp. 621-640.

Fuchs, C., Broniatowski, M. and Raftery, A.E. (1981).
Étude de la division cellulaire dans le meristème plan de la feuille
de Tropaeolum peregrinum L. II. Structures presentées par la distribution
des mitoses.
*Comptes rendus de l'Académie des Sciences de Paris, série III,
292, *385-387.

Raftery, A.E., Shier, P. and Obilade, T. (1980).
Domestic space heating and solar energy in Ireland.
*International Journal of Energy Research, 4, *31-39.

Updated May 7, 2024.

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Copyright 2005-2024 by Adrian E. Raftery; all rights reserved.